Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$156,178 Vol.
17 août 2026
15 août
5%
16 août
17%
17 août
24%
18 août
19%
19 août
19%
August 20
13%
21 août
12%
22 août
15%
August 23
15%
24 août
15%
25 août
14%
26 août
14%
27 août
14%
August 28
15%
29 août
22%
30 août
13%
31 août
11%
$156,178 Vol.
15 août
$6,857 Vol.
5%
16 août
$3,242 Vol.
17%
17 août
$685 Vol.
24%
18 août
$514 Vol.
19%
19 août
$3,936 Vol.
19%
August 20
$1,557 Vol.
13%
21 août
$1,254 Vol.
12%
22 août
$545 Vol.
15%
August 23
$3,009 Vol.
15%
24 août
$6,259 Vol.
15%
25 août
$116 Vol.
14%
26 août
$768 Vol.
14%
27 août
$408 Vol.
14%
August 28
$1,225 Vol.
15%
29 août
$1,977 Vol.
22%
30 août
$240 Vol.
13%
31 août
$1,739 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$156,178Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$156,178Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through attacks on noncompliant commercial vessels, combined with Houthi strikes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, continue to shape trader views on the timing of successful targeting. A June memorandum of understanding collapsed after Iranian forces struck multiple ships in early July, prompting renewed U.S. strikes and a de facto blockade on traffic to Iranian ports. Fresh incidents in mid-August, including reported Houthi attacks killing crew members on Red Sea vessels and strikes affecting tankers in the Gulf, have kept disruption risks elevated despite intermittent diplomatic contacts with Oman. Upcoming talks and potential further U.S. or Israeli responses remain key variables that could alter the pace of incidents before the market resolves.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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