**Trader sentiment for Busan's August 28 minimum temperature centers on the 25–26°C range (combined ~96.5% implied probability), reflecting tight scientific uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling amid persistent tropical conditions.** Official forecasts from sources including the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models indicate daytime highs near 29°C with overnight lows of 26–27°C, driven by high humidity (often >85–90%), light variable winds, and frequent thunderstorm activity that limits surface heat loss. The day falls within a period of elevated temperatures relative to the long-term August average low of ~23–24°C, sustained by warm, moist air masses and minimal nocturnal clear-sky cooling. The near-even split between 25°C and 26°C outcomes arises from small differences in model timing of cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and urban heat retention at the primary observation site (Gimhae International Airport). A 24°C outcome retains meaningful probability if stronger nocturnal clearing or a brief wind shift allows more efficient heat radiation, while probabilities drop sharply below 23°C or above 27°C due to the strong baseline warmth and limited variability expected on this date. Updated model runs and real-time station observations near resolution will likely narrow the distribution further.