Northerly winds strengthening ahead of a front are the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 15°C high (57%) on August 28 in Wellington, with 16°C close behind at 30.5%. These flows typically advect milder maritime air over the region during late winter, lifting daytime maxima above the climatological 12–13°C average. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows highs clustering near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers, yet some runs indicate brief warmer pockets if winds remain brisk. Traders appear to weigh the potential for slight model underestimation of northerly influence, while assigning low probability to extremes below 13°C or above 17°C given current steering patterns and limited diurnal range. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Wellington le 28 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Wellington le 28 août ?
15°C 56%
16°C 30%
14°C 10%
17°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$11,830 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,830 Vol.
28 août 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
10%
15°C
56%
16°C
30%
17°C
6%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 56%
16°C 30%
14°C 10%
17°C 6%
NOUVEAU
$11,830 Vol.
NOUVEAU
$11,830 Vol.
28 août 2026
10°C or below
$667 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$520 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$663 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,489 Vol.
1%
14°C
$2,243 Vol.
10%
15°C
$1,110 Vol.
56%
16°C
$1,886 Vol.
30%
17°C
$1,530 Vol.
6%
18°C
$719 Vol.
1%
19°C
$646 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$557 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northerly winds strengthening ahead of a front are the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 15°C high (57%) on August 28 in Wellington, with 16°C close behind at 30.5%. These flows typically advect milder maritime air over the region during late winter, lifting daytime maxima above the climatological 12–13°C average. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows highs clustering near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers, yet some runs indicate brief warmer pockets if winds remain brisk. Traders appear to weigh the potential for slight model underestimation of northerly influence, while assigning low probability to extremes below 13°C or above 17°C given current steering patterns and limited diurnal range. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$11,830Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northerly winds strengthening ahead of a front are the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 15°C high (57%) on August 28 in Wellington, with 16°C close behind at 30.5%. These flows typically advect milder maritime air over the region during late winter, lifting daytime maxima above the climatological 12–13°C average. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows highs clustering near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers, yet some runs indicate brief warmer pockets if winds remain brisk. Traders appear to weigh the potential for slight model underestimation of northerly influence, while assigning low probability to extremes below 13°C or above 17°C given current steering patterns and limited diurnal range. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,830Date de fin
28 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northerly winds strengthening ahead of a front are the main driver behind market-implied odds favoring a 15°C high (57%) on August 28 in Wellington, with 16°C close behind at 30.5%. These flows typically advect milder maritime air over the region during late winter, lifting daytime maxima above the climatological 12–13°C average. Official guidance from MetService and international models shows highs clustering near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with showers, yet some runs indicate brief warmer pockets if winds remain brisk. Traders appear to weigh the potential for slight model underestimation of northerly influence, while assigning low probability to extremes below 13°C or above 17°C given current steering patterns and limited diurnal range. Updated forecasts tomorrow morning will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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