**Trader sentiment for Denver's lowest temperature on August 25, 2026, reflects genuine uncertainty around the overnight minimum in a high-elevation desert climate.** Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather point to a low near 62–65°F, aligning with the leading 64–65°F outcome at 36% implied probability. This range sits slightly above late-August normals of roughly 57–60°F, driven by recent warm-air advection after early-month heat and variable cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Key scientific differentiators include surface radiative cooling rates under clear versus cloudy skies, wind mixing that prevents temperature inversions, and any residual thunderstorm activity or moisture that raises dew points and slows nocturnal temperature drops. The 30.5% odds on 72°F or higher capture the risk of limited cooling from persistent clouds or a warmer-than-expected boundary layer, while the 28% on 53°F or below accounts for the possibility of unusually clear, calm conditions allowing stronger longwave radiation loss at 5,280 feet elevation. Recent model runs show modest spread in minimum temperature guidance, keeping multiple bins (60–61°F through 68–69°F) clustered near 25–27.5% as traders weigh the final hours of the diurnal cycle and any last-minute forecast adjustments from NOAA.