**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops. Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection. Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à New York le 31 août ?
La température la plus basse à New York le 31 août ?
70-71°F 41%
72-73°F 36%
76-77°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
65°F ou moins
14%
66-67 °F
5%
68-69 °F
16%
70-71°F
41%
72-73°F
36%
74-75 °F
18%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
19%
80-81 °F
15%
82-83 °F
12%
84°F ou plus
9%
70-71°F 41%
72-73°F 36%
76-77°F 20%
78-79°F 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 août 2026
65°F ou moins
$6 Vol.
14%
66-67 °F
$40 Vol.
5%
68-69 °F
$48 Vol.
16%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
41%
72-73°F
$107 Vol.
36%
74-75 °F
$0 Vol.
18%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81 °F
$0 Vol.
15%
82-83 °F
$0 Vol.
12%
84°F ou plus
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops.
Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection.
Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$201Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops.
Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection.
Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$201Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 29, 2026, 3:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple sources, including WeatherBug and global models, point to an overnight low of 70–72°F for NYC on August 31, 2026, aligning with the market’s top two outcomes (70–71°F at 41% and 72–73°F at 30.5%).** These elevated probabilities reflect the latest model consensus showing limited radiational cooling under partly to mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and higher dew points that suppress temperature drops. Recent observations confirm the pattern: August 29–30 featured overnight lows climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s amid a warm, humid air mass, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. This departs from the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 66–67°F for late August, driven by above-normal sea-surface temperatures and weak steering flow that favors southerly or southwesterly advection. Key resolution factors include the official Central Park minimum (typically measured near sunrise), any localized urban heat-island effects, and potential for showers that could further moderate cooling. With only two days until resolution, traders are weighting the stable forecast guidance heavily while discounting lower-probability scenarios of stronger cold-air advection that would push readings into the upper 60s.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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