Official forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Administration and global models point to overnight lows of 25–26°C on August 31 in Taipei, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and elevated humidity that limit nighttime radiative cooling. Easterly flow and residual tropical moisture from the monsoon trough further moderate temperature drops, consistent with late-August climatology where clear-sky minima can dip lower. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 26–28°C outcomes because model runs show slight variations in rainfall timing and wind strength that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C; heavier overnight rain would favor the warmer side of the range while any temporary clearing could allow brief cooling toward 24°C. Updated NWP guidance ahead of the date remains the key near-term catalyst.