Recent rain and a sharp temperature drop across central China on September 17–18 have left Wuhan with elevated soil moisture and lingering cloud cover that moderates overnight radiative cooling. Official forecasts from multiple sources converge on a September 19 minimum near 22–23 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, well inside the 18–24 °C range that dominates specific-temperature contracts. Model spread remains modest because steering patterns are stable and no strong cold-air advection is expected, yet traders assign nearly equal weight to the 17 °C-or-below and 27 °C-or-higher tails. This reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing during the final hours before the daily minimum is recorded.