Recent April 2026 employment data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent amid a shrinking labor force and subdued payroll gains of 115,000 has anchored trader expectations for May. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job creation will offset continued declines in participation and push the rate higher. Consensus economist forecasts anticipate a modest uptick toward 4.4 percent as labor-market slack gradually emerges, while upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and the June 5 release will serve as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if initial claims or household-survey metrics deviate from the recent low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 37%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 12.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
11%
4.1%
12%
4.2%
22%
4.3%
37%
4.4%
37%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 37%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 12.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juin 2026
≤3.9%
$46 Vol.
3%
4.0%
$73 Vol.
11%
4.1%
$45 Vol.
12%
4.2%
$38 Vol.
22%
4.3%
$107 Vol.
37%
4.4%
$54 Vol.
37%
4.5%
$50 Vol.
11%
4.6%
$45 Vol.
4%
≥4.7%
$52 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent April 2026 employment data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent amid a shrinking labor force and subdued payroll gains of 115,000 has anchored trader expectations for May. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job creation will offset continued declines in participation and push the rate higher. Consensus economist forecasts anticipate a modest uptick toward 4.4 percent as labor-market slack gradually emerges, while upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and the June 5 release will serve as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if initial claims or household-survey metrics deviate from the recent low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$511Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent April 2026 employment data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent amid a shrinking labor force and subdued payroll gains of 115,000 has anchored trader expectations for May. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job creation will offset continued declines in participation and push the rate higher. Consensus economist forecasts anticipate a modest uptick toward 4.4 percent as labor-market slack gradually emerges, while upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and the June 5 release will serve as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if initial claims or household-survey metrics deviate from the recent low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$511Date de fin
5 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 employment data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent amid a shrinking labor force and subdued payroll gains of 115,000 has anchored trader expectations for May. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether modest job creation will offset continued declines in participation and push the rate higher. Consensus economist forecasts anticipate a modest uptick toward 4.4 percent as labor-market slack gradually emerges, while upcoming May nonfarm payrolls and the June 5 release will serve as the key catalyst that could shift probabilities if initial claims or household-survey metrics deviate from the recent low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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