Robust U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7% market-implied probability that real GDP will avoid negative growth in 2026. The advance estimate showed annualized real GDP expanding 2.0% in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5% in late 2025, with strength in business investment and consumer spending. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project solid expansion for the full year, supported by fiscal measures from the prior reconciliation act and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures that offset tariff pressures and slower immigration. While a sharper contraction in consumer demand or intensified trade frictions could still test this outlook, current leading indicators point to continued positive momentum through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7% market-implied probability that real GDP will avoid negative growth in 2026. The advance estimate showed annualized real GDP expanding 2.0% in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5% in late 2025, with strength in business investment and consumer spending. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project solid expansion for the full year, supported by fiscal measures from the prior reconciliation act and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures that offset tariff pressures and slower immigration. While a sharper contraction in consumer demand or intensified trade frictions could still test this outlook, current leading indicators point to continued positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,508Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7% market-implied probability that real GDP will avoid negative growth in 2026. The advance estimate showed annualized real GDP expanding 2.0% in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5% in late 2025, with strength in business investment and consumer spending. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project solid expansion for the full year, supported by fiscal measures from the prior reconciliation act and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures that offset tariff pressures and slower immigration. While a sharper contraction in consumer demand or intensified trade frictions could still test this outlook, current leading indicators point to continued positive momentum through year-end.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,508Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic data and broad consensus forecasts underpin the 93.7% market-implied probability that real GDP will avoid negative growth in 2026. The advance estimate showed annualized real GDP expanding 2.0% in the first quarter, rebounding from 0.5% in late 2025, with strength in business investment and consumer spending. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project solid expansion for the full year, supported by fiscal measures from the prior reconciliation act and ongoing AI-related capital expenditures that offset tariff pressures and slower immigration. While a sharper contraction in consumer demand or intensified trade frictions could still test this outlook, current leading indicators point to continued positive momentum through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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