Recent economic data and consensus forecasts point to solid U.S. real GDP expansion of 2.0% to 2.5% for 2026, driving the strong market-implied odds against contraction. First-quarter 2026 results advanced at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from the prior period’s softer pace amid gains in consumer spending, private investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve’s median outlook incorporate fiscal tailwinds from recent tax and expensing measures alongside AI-related capital outlays, outweighing headwinds from tariffs. While a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt tightening of financial conditions could still trigger downside surprises, current indicators and leading forecasts leave little room for negative full-year growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$26,508 Vol.
$26,508 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent economic data and consensus forecasts point to solid U.S. real GDP expansion of 2.0% to 2.5% for 2026, driving the strong market-implied odds against contraction. First-quarter 2026 results advanced at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from the prior period’s softer pace amid gains in consumer spending, private investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve’s median outlook incorporate fiscal tailwinds from recent tax and expensing measures alongside AI-related capital outlays, outweighing headwinds from tariffs. While a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt tightening of financial conditions could still trigger downside surprises, current indicators and leading forecasts leave little room for negative full-year growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$26,508Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent economic data and consensus forecasts point to solid U.S. real GDP expansion of 2.0% to 2.5% for 2026, driving the strong market-implied odds against contraction. First-quarter 2026 results advanced at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from the prior period’s softer pace amid gains in consumer spending, private investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve’s median outlook incorporate fiscal tailwinds from recent tax and expensing measures alongside AI-related capital outlays, outweighing headwinds from tariffs. While a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt tightening of financial conditions could still trigger downside surprises, current indicators and leading forecasts leave little room for negative full-year growth.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$26,508Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent economic data and consensus forecasts point to solid U.S. real GDP expansion of 2.0% to 2.5% for 2026, driving the strong market-implied odds against contraction. First-quarter 2026 results advanced at a 2.0% annualized rate, rebounding from the prior period’s softer pace amid gains in consumer spending, private investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Goldman Sachs, and the Federal Reserve’s median outlook incorporate fiscal tailwinds from recent tax and expensing measures alongside AI-related capital outlays, outweighing headwinds from tariffs. While a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt tightening of financial conditions could still trigger downside surprises, current indicators and leading forecasts leave little room for negative full-year growth.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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