Robust U.S. economic data continue to anchor the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists project real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for the year, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate supports ongoing expansion without signaling contraction via Treasury yields. While this skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects strong fundamentals, tail-risk scenarios such as abrupt geopolitical shocks, sharper policy tightening, or an unexpected consumer spending pullback could still tip activity into negative territory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
4% chance
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data continue to anchor the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists project real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for the year, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate supports ongoing expansion without signaling contraction via Treasury yields. While this skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects strong fundamentals, tail-risk scenarios such as abrupt geopolitical shocks, sharper policy tightening, or an unexpected consumer spending pullback could still tip activity into negative territory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data continue to anchor the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists project real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for the year, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate supports ongoing expansion without signaling contraction via Treasury yields. While this skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects strong fundamentals, tail-risk scenarios such as abrupt geopolitical shocks, sharper policy tightening, or an unexpected consumer spending pullback could still tip activity into negative territory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic data continue to anchor the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. Consensus forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, and private economists project real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for the year, driven by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies alongside a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5%. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy stance at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate supports ongoing expansion without signaling contraction via Treasury yields. While this skin-in-the-game trader consensus reflects strong fundamentals, tail-risk scenarios such as abrupt geopolitical shocks, sharper policy tightening, or an unexpected consumer spending pullback could still tip activity into negative territory.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes