Trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to OpenAI completing no IPO by December 31, 2026, primarily because its CFO has privately cautioned against a late-2026 timeline, citing unsustainable data-center spending, missed internal revenue and user targets, and the need to mature financial reporting ahead of public scrutiny. A recent $122 billion funding round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and ongoing legal challenges continue to pressure leadership toward a 2027 target. These dynamics leave lower-probability valuation buckets (under 8% each) dependent on faster-than-expected large language model releases or regulatory clarity that could accelerate a filing. Upcoming catalysts include model capability benchmarks and any shifts in board or executive guidance on public-market readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 74%
1.5T+ 8.3%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 milliards de dollars 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
1%
500–750 milliards de dollars
3%
750B–1T
2%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
2%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1.5T+
8%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
74%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 74%
1.5T+ 8.3%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 milliards de dollars 3.5%
$1,638,745 Vol.
$1,638,745 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<500B
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750 milliards de dollars
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1 000 milliards–1 250 milliards
$182,614 Vol.
2%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1.5T+
$101,032 Vol.
8%
Pas d'introduction en bourse d'ici le 31 décembre 2026
$305,039 Vol.
74%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to OpenAI completing no IPO by December 31, 2026, primarily because its CFO has privately cautioned against a late-2026 timeline, citing unsustainable data-center spending, missed internal revenue and user targets, and the need to mature financial reporting ahead of public scrutiny. A recent $122 billion funding round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and ongoing legal challenges continue to pressure leadership toward a 2027 target. These dynamics leave lower-probability valuation buckets (under 8% each) dependent on faster-than-expected large language model releases or regulatory clarity that could accelerate a filing. Upcoming catalysts include model capability benchmarks and any shifts in board or executive guidance on public-market readiness.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,745Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to OpenAI completing no IPO by December 31, 2026, primarily because its CFO has privately cautioned against a late-2026 timeline, citing unsustainable data-center spending, missed internal revenue and user targets, and the need to mature financial reporting ahead of public scrutiny. A recent $122 billion funding round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and ongoing legal challenges continue to pressure leadership toward a 2027 target. These dynamics leave lower-probability valuation buckets (under 8% each) dependent on faster-than-expected large language model releases or regulatory clarity that could accelerate a filing. Upcoming catalysts include model capability benchmarks and any shifts in board or executive guidance on public-market readiness.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,745Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 74% implied probability to OpenAI completing no IPO by December 31, 2026, primarily because its CFO has privately cautioned against a late-2026 timeline, citing unsustainable data-center spending, missed internal revenue and user targets, and the need to mature financial reporting ahead of public scrutiny. A recent $122 billion funding round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation, yet projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and ongoing legal challenges continue to pressure leadership toward a 2027 target. These dynamics leave lower-probability valuation buckets (under 8% each) dependent on faster-than-expected large language model releases or regulatory clarity that could accelerate a filing. Upcoming catalysts include model capability benchmarks and any shifts in board or executive guidance on public-market readiness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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