Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid a presidential party facing typical historical headwinds. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5 to 9 points, reflecting voter concerns over the economy, energy prices tied to foreign conflicts, and Trump administration priorities. Offsetting factors include Republican gains from redistricting rulings in states such as Virginia and Missouri that solidify additional districts. With the outcome hinging on turnout in competitive seats and late-cycle developments, trader consensus reflects substantial uncertainty, keeping probabilities distributed across multiple seat ranges below and above the current majority threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSièges républicains à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Moins de 190 27%
195-199 12%
190-194 12%
200-204 11.5%
$234,466 Vol.
$234,466 Vol.
Moins de 190
27%
190-194
12%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
4%
Moins de 190 27%
195-199 12%
190-194 12%
200-204 11.5%
$234,466 Vol.
$234,466 Vol.
Moins de 190
27%
190-194
12%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 217 seats amid a presidential party facing typical historical headwinds. Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading by 5 to 9 points, reflecting voter concerns over the economy, energy prices tied to foreign conflicts, and Trump administration priorities. Offsetting factors include Republican gains from redistricting rulings in states such as Virginia and Missouri that solidify additional districts. With the outcome hinging on turnout in competitive seats and late-cycle developments, trader consensus reflects substantial uncertainty, keeping probabilities distributed across multiple seat ranges below and above the current majority threshold.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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