Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 5-7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party gains ground against the president's party. This environment has produced forecasts of Democratic net gains sufficient to flip the narrow Republican House majority, with analysts highlighting roughly two dozen GOP-held seats as most competitive due to district partisan leans and 2024 presidential results. Ongoing redistricting in several states adds uncertainty to the exact seat math, while trader prices reflect broad agreement on likely Democratic advances but dispersion across final Republican totals depending on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSièges républicains à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Sièges républicains à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Moins de 190 24%
190-194 14%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,550 Vol.
$286,550 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Moins de 190
24%
190-194
14%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
220-224
5%
225-229
5%
230+
4%
Moins de 190 24%
190-194 14%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$286,550 Vol.
$286,550 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Moins de 190
$32,984 Vol.
24%
190-194
$13,814 Vol.
14%
195-199
$32,609 Vol.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Vol.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Vol.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Vol.
9%
215-219
$11,463 Vol.
5%
220-224
$59,267 Vol.
5%
225-229
$24,767 Vol.
5%
230+
$31,001 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 5-7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party gains ground against the president's party. This environment has produced forecasts of Democratic net gains sufficient to flip the narrow Republican House majority, with analysts highlighting roughly two dozen GOP-held seats as most competitive due to district partisan leans and 2024 presidential results. Ongoing redistricting in several states adds uncertainty to the exact seat math, while trader prices reflect broad agreement on likely Democratic advances but dispersion across final Republican totals depending on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions before November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$286,550Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 5-7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party gains ground against the president's party. This environment has produced forecasts of Democratic net gains sufficient to flip the narrow Republican House majority, with analysts highlighting roughly two dozen GOP-held seats as most competitive due to district partisan leans and 2024 presidential results. Ongoing redistricting in several states adds uncertainty to the exact seat math, while trader prices reflect broad agreement on likely Democratic advances but dispersion across final Republican totals depending on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions before November.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$286,550Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent generic ballot polling shows Democrats leading Republicans by 5-7 points, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the opposition party gains ground against the president's party. This environment has produced forecasts of Democratic net gains sufficient to flip the narrow Republican House majority, with analysts highlighting roughly two dozen GOP-held seats as most competitive due to district partisan leans and 2024 presidential results. Ongoing redistricting in several states adds uncertainty to the exact seat math, while trader prices reflect broad agreement on likely Democratic advances but dispersion across final Republican totals depending on turnout, candidate quality, and any late shifts in national conditions before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il 47 sièges ou moins au Sénat après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
28%
Oui
Les républicains détiendront-ils 47 à 49 sièges au Sénat et 193 à 207 sièges à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
25%
Oui
Le Parti démocrate contrôlera-t-il la Chambre des représentants après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
88%
Oui
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