Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Heightened Kremlin security measures reported since March 2026, including restricted public appearances and elite vetting, stemmed from unverified European intelligence leaks citing internal plot risks, yet these produced only rumors without confirmed plots, military defections, or elite fractures. Putin continues to project unified authority through United Russia events and constitutional advantages extending potential rule to 2036, while opposition remains suppressed and battlefield developments in Ukraine have not triggered domestic power challenges. Traders view the absence of verifiable institutional or leadership shifts as outweighing isolated speculation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7% chance
$126,094 Vol.
$126,094 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
7% chance
$126,094 Vol.
$126,094 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Heightened Kremlin security measures reported since March 2026, including restricted public appearances and elite vetting, stemmed from unverified European intelligence leaks citing internal plot risks, yet these produced only rumors without confirmed plots, military defections, or elite fractures. Putin continues to project unified authority through United Russia events and constitutional advantages extending potential rule to 2036, while opposition remains suppressed and battlefield developments in Ukraine have not triggered domestic power challenges. Traders view the absence of verifiable institutional or leadership shifts as outweighing isolated speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,094Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Heightened Kremlin security measures reported since March 2026, including restricted public appearances and elite vetting, stemmed from unverified European intelligence leaks citing internal plot risks, yet these produced only rumors without confirmed plots, military defections, or elite fractures. Putin continues to project unified authority through United Russia events and constitutional advantages extending potential rule to 2036, while opposition remains suppressed and battlefield developments in Ukraine have not triggered domestic power challenges. Traders view the absence of verifiable institutional or leadership shifts as outweighing isolated speculation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,094Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of an organized coup attempt through mid-August 2026, supporting trader consensus on low probability. Heightened Kremlin security measures reported since March 2026, including restricted public appearances and elite vetting, stemmed from unverified European intelligence leaks citing internal plot risks, yet these produced only rumors without confirmed plots, military defections, or elite fractures. Putin continues to project unified authority through United Russia events and constitutional advantages extending potential rule to 2036, while opposition remains suppressed and battlefield developments in Ukraine have not triggered domestic power challenges. Traders view the absence of verifiable institutional or leadership shifts as outweighing isolated speculation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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