Ongoing territorial disputes and security guarantee disagreements continue to constrain prospects for a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement by the end of 2026. Ukraine has rejected recent Russian proposals for a short-term ceasefire ahead of May 9 Victory Day observances, insisting instead on a long-term settlement that restores pre-2014 borders and includes robust international protections. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks earlier this year in Geneva produced no breakthrough on core issues such as Donbas control or post-conflict arrangements, while battlefield developments including Russian advances in the east and mutual infrastructure strikes underscore the lack of de-escalation momentum. Traders price the outcome accordingly, viewing the current diplomatic impasse and absence of verifiable concessions as evidence that sustained hostilities are likely to persist through the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$597,264 Vol.
$597,264 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$597,264 Vol.
$597,264 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disputes and security guarantee disagreements continue to constrain prospects for a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement by the end of 2026. Ukraine has rejected recent Russian proposals for a short-term ceasefire ahead of May 9 Victory Day observances, insisting instead on a long-term settlement that restores pre-2014 borders and includes robust international protections. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks earlier this year in Geneva produced no breakthrough on core issues such as Donbas control or post-conflict arrangements, while battlefield developments including Russian advances in the east and mutual infrastructure strikes underscore the lack of de-escalation momentum. Traders price the outcome accordingly, viewing the current diplomatic impasse and absence of verifiable concessions as evidence that sustained hostilities are likely to persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$597,264Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing territorial disputes and security guarantee disagreements continue to constrain prospects for a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement by the end of 2026. Ukraine has rejected recent Russian proposals for a short-term ceasefire ahead of May 9 Victory Day observances, insisting instead on a long-term settlement that restores pre-2014 borders and includes robust international protections. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks earlier this year in Geneva produced no breakthrough on core issues such as Donbas control or post-conflict arrangements, while battlefield developments including Russian advances in the east and mutual infrastructure strikes underscore the lack of de-escalation momentum. Traders price the outcome accordingly, viewing the current diplomatic impasse and absence of verifiable concessions as evidence that sustained hostilities are likely to persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$597,264Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing territorial disputes and security guarantee disagreements continue to constrain prospects for a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia agreement by the end of 2026. Ukraine has rejected recent Russian proposals for a short-term ceasefire ahead of May 9 Victory Day observances, insisting instead on a long-term settlement that restores pre-2014 borders and includes robust international protections. U.S.-brokered trilateral talks earlier this year in Geneva produced no breakthrough on core issues such as Donbas control or post-conflict arrangements, while battlefield developments including Russian advances in the east and mutual infrastructure strikes underscore the lack of de-escalation momentum. Traders price the outcome accordingly, viewing the current diplomatic impasse and absence of verifiable concessions as evidence that sustained hostilities are likely to persist through the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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