The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Les États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Oui
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,051Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,051Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes