Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability that the United States will avoid defaulting on its debt by 2027, driven by consistent historical precedent of congressional debt ceiling increases and the shared institutional incentive to prevent severe market disruption or credit rating damage. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures during impasses, while both parties have repeatedly reached last-minute bipartisan agreements on appropriations and fiscal legislation to maintain full faith and credit. With the next major statutory deadlines still months away from September 2026, the pricing reflects this established pattern. Realistic shifts could stem from prolonged partisan standoffs over spending priorities or an acute external shock that compresses negotiation windows, though such outcomes remain viewed as low-probability tail risks.