Trump’s continued tenure through September 30 reflects the absence of active removal mechanisms and the compressed timeline remaining. No congressional majorities support expedited impeachment proceedings, recent resolutions remain stalled in committee, and no credible cabinet or vice-presidential moves toward the 25th Amendment have surfaced in recent weeks. Public statements from the president and administration focus on ongoing policy implementation and midterm preparations rather than transition planning. While sudden health events, unanticipated scandals, or rapid bipartisan consensus on incapacity could theoretically alter the outcome, such developments lack supporting evidence and would face substantial procedural and political barriers within the remaining window. Market pricing therefore aligns with the low probability of any qualifying exit before the deadline.