**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from Khamenei’s official accounts during September 15–22, 2026, reflecting the accounts’ established low activity levels.** Official channels such as @khamenei_ir maintain a posting rate of roughly 0.07 per day and are active on only about 7% of days, with recent 30-day windows showing just two original posts. This pattern has persisted following the 2026 leadership transition, as the accounts primarily issue occasional statements, Quranic references, or policy remarks rather than frequent updates. With the resolution window nearly complete and no major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments reported that would typically trigger additional official messaging, the probability of staying under five posts remains dominant. A significant escalation in regional tensions, a high-profile policy announcement, or an unexpected institutional statement could still increase volume, though such catalysts have been rare in recent months.