Traders assign a 93% implied probability to fewer than five posts from the relevant Khamenei-linked X account during the September 18–25 window, reflecting the account’s historically modest output and the current environment of limited public messaging. Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death earlier in 2026 and the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, official statements have shifted toward occasional written releases or broadcast readings rather than frequent social-media activity, amid security constraints and a preference for low-visibility decision-making. Recent patterns show irregular or minimal daily posts outside major escalations, with officials emphasizing continuity through private channels. A surge above five posts would require an unusual catalyst such as a direct high-level statement on ongoing regional developments or a shift in communication strategy within the resolution period.