Recent softening in Q2 2026 GDP to a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, has tempered baseline expectations, yet the ≥3.0% bucket leads with 35.5% implied probability amid upward revisions in professional forecasts and nowcasts. The New York Fed’s August 14 nowcast stands at 2.1% for Q3, while the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters raised its Q3 estimate to 2.5%, reflecting stronger business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property alongside steady consumer spending. Market-implied odds favor a rebound above 2.5% as traders weigh resilient capex and potential inventory dynamics against cooling labor markets and tariff effects, with the 2.0–2.5% range at 25.5% capturing the central tendency of current data. Key catalysts include the Q3 advance estimate due in late October and ongoing FOMC communications on monetary policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour≥3.0% 36%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 11%
$18,210 Vol.
$18,210 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
11%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
20%
≥3.0%
36%
≥3.0% 36%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 20%
1.5–2.0% 11%
$18,210 Vol.
$18,210 Vol.
29 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$470 Vol.
4%
1.0–1.5%
$546 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
11%
2.0–2.5%
$1,743 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,152 Vol.
20%
≥3.0%
$10,939 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent softening in Q2 2026 GDP to a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, has tempered baseline expectations, yet the ≥3.0% bucket leads with 35.5% implied probability amid upward revisions in professional forecasts and nowcasts. The New York Fed’s August 14 nowcast stands at 2.1% for Q3, while the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters raised its Q3 estimate to 2.5%, reflecting stronger business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property alongside steady consumer spending. Market-implied odds favor a rebound above 2.5% as traders weigh resilient capex and potential inventory dynamics against cooling labor markets and tariff effects, with the 2.0–2.5% range at 25.5% capturing the central tendency of current data. Key catalysts include the Q3 advance estimate due in late October and ongoing FOMC communications on monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$18,210Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent softening in Q2 2026 GDP to a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, has tempered baseline expectations, yet the ≥3.0% bucket leads with 35.5% implied probability amid upward revisions in professional forecasts and nowcasts. The New York Fed’s August 14 nowcast stands at 2.1% for Q3, while the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters raised its Q3 estimate to 2.5%, reflecting stronger business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property alongside steady consumer spending. Market-implied odds favor a rebound above 2.5% as traders weigh resilient capex and potential inventory dynamics against cooling labor markets and tariff effects, with the 2.0–2.5% range at 25.5% capturing the central tendency of current data. Key catalysts include the Q3 advance estimate due in late October and ongoing FOMC communications on monetary policy.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$18,210Date de fin
29 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in Q2 2026 GDP to a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in Q1, has tempered baseline expectations, yet the ≥3.0% bucket leads with 35.5% implied probability amid upward revisions in professional forecasts and nowcasts. The New York Fed’s August 14 nowcast stands at 2.1% for Q3, while the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters raised its Q3 estimate to 2.5%, reflecting stronger business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property alongside steady consumer spending. Market-implied odds favor a rebound above 2.5% as traders weigh resilient capex and potential inventory dynamics against cooling labor markets and tariff effects, with the 2.0–2.5% range at 25.5% capturing the central tendency of current data. Key catalysts include the Q3 advance estimate due in late October and ongoing FOMC communications on monetary policy.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes