Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$251,086 Vol.
$251,086 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$251,086 Vol.
$251,086 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$251,086Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,086Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 91.5% implied probability for US military draft authorization in 2026, reflecting the absence of any congressional bill, executive order, or national emergency declaration reinstating conscription since the all-volunteer force took effect in 1973. Recent April 2026 headlines spotlighted a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—mandating automatic Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December 2026, streamlining the existing draft-eligible pool without activating inductions. Amid US involvement in Middle East conflicts including against Iran, all armed services met fiscal year 2025 recruitment goals, diminishing urgency for a draft amid strong volunteer enlistments and no pending legislation. Late-breaking emergencies or congressional action could shift odds, but current trader consensus sees substantial barriers to authorization by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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