US military leaders and lawmakers continue to rely on the all-volunteer force established after 1973, with no legislation introduced or advanced in 2026 to authorize conscription despite ongoing conflicts. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December merely streamline existing contingency processes and do not constitute draft authorization, which requires explicit congressional action and presidential approval during a declared national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. Bipartisan resistance to compulsory service, combined with recruitment adjustments and allied support, sustains the 95.5% trader consensus against activation this year. Late escalations in major theaters or sudden shortfalls in voluntary enlistments remain the primary variables that could prompt reconsideration before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$521,268 Vol.
$521,268 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US military leaders and lawmakers continue to rely on the all-volunteer force established after 1973, with no legislation introduced or advanced in 2026 to authorize conscription despite ongoing conflicts. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December merely streamline existing contingency processes and do not constitute draft authorization, which requires explicit congressional action and presidential approval during a declared national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. Bipartisan resistance to compulsory service, combined with recruitment adjustments and allied support, sustains the 95.5% trader consensus against activation this year. Late escalations in major theaters or sudden shortfalls in voluntary enlistments remain the primary variables that could prompt reconsideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$521,268Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US military leaders and lawmakers continue to rely on the all-volunteer force established after 1973, with no legislation introduced or advanced in 2026 to authorize conscription despite ongoing conflicts. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December merely streamline existing contingency processes and do not constitute draft authorization, which requires explicit congressional action and presidential approval during a declared national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. Bipartisan resistance to compulsory service, combined with recruitment adjustments and allied support, sustains the 95.5% trader consensus against activation this year. Late escalations in major theaters or sudden shortfalls in voluntary enlistments remain the primary variables that could prompt reconsideration before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$521,268Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military leaders and lawmakers continue to rely on the all-volunteer force established after 1973, with no legislation introduced or advanced in 2026 to authorize conscription despite ongoing conflicts. Automatic Selective Service registration changes scheduled for December merely streamline existing contingency processes and do not constitute draft authorization, which requires explicit congressional action and presidential approval during a declared national emergency exceeding recruitment capacity. Bipartisan resistance to compulsory service, combined with recruitment adjustments and allied support, sustains the 95.5% trader consensus against activation this year. Late escalations in major theaters or sudden shortfalls in voluntary enlistments remain the primary variables that could prompt reconsideration before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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