U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$768,750 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
4%
$768,750 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,189 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$50,749 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$768,750Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$768,750Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. nuclear policy remains anchored in the 1992 voluntary moratorium on explosive tests, with the National Nuclear Security Administration maintaining 36-month readiness timelines at the Nevada National Security Site that have seen limited recent funding. President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing testing “on an equal basis” with other nations, followed by administration affirmations, introduced the primary recent catalyst for market movement, yet no explosive detonation has occurred through mid-2026 amid technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles. Concerns over possible low-yield or decoupled activities by China, New START expiration, and broader stockpile modernization debates shape trader assessments of near-term resumption. Key variables include any administration directives on test types, congressional appropriations for readiness, and verification of foreign activities that could accelerate or delay action within remaining resolution windows.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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