The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on computer simulations and subcritical experiments to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resumption sparked debate but yielded no tests, as experts estimate 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness amid congressional pushes to block funding via appropriations bills. No verifiable developments have occurred in the past 30 days to alter this status quo, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities through 2026 due to steep logistical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation barriers—though escalation with rivals like Russia or China could shift dynamics ahead of key budget votes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$665,401 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
3%
30 septembre 2026
6%
31 décembre 2026
9%
$665,401 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$39,382 Vol.
3%
30 septembre 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 décembre 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on computer simulations and subcritical experiments to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resumption sparked debate but yielded no tests, as experts estimate 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness amid congressional pushes to block funding via appropriations bills. No verifiable developments have occurred in the past 30 days to alter this status quo, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities through 2026 due to steep logistical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation barriers—though escalation with rivals like Russia or China could shift dynamics ahead of key budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$665,401Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on computer simulations and subcritical experiments to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resumption sparked debate but yielded no tests, as experts estimate 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness amid congressional pushes to block funding via appropriations bills. No verifiable developments have occurred in the past 30 days to alter this status quo, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities through 2026 due to steep logistical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation barriers—though escalation with rivals like Russia or China could shift dynamics ahead of key budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$665,401Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on computer simulations and subcritical experiments to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resumption sparked debate but yielded no tests, as experts estimate 24-36 months for infrastructure readiness amid congressional pushes to block funding via appropriations bills. No verifiable developments have occurred in the past 30 days to alter this status quo, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities through 2026 due to steep logistical, diplomatic, and nonproliferation barriers—though escalation with rivals like Russia or China could shift dynamics ahead of key budget votes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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