Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJamieson Greer 30.0%
Susie Wiles 26.6%
Scott Turner 14.6%
Marco Rubio 14.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Jamieson Greer
30%
Susie Wiles
27%
Scott Turner
15%
Marco Rubio
14%
Howard Lutnick
10%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Doug Collins
10%
Scott Bessent
8%
None before 2027
6%
Sean Duffy
5%
John Ratcliffe
12%
Linda McMahon
4%
Kelly Loeffler
4%
J.D. Vance
4%
Lee Zeldin
3%
Chris Wright
2%
Doug Burgum
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
40%
Mike Waltz
27%
Jamieson Greer 30.0%
Susie Wiles 26.6%
Scott Turner 14.6%
Marco Rubio 14.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Jamieson Greer
$155 Vol.
30%
Susie Wiles
$302 Vol.
27%
Scott Turner
$155 Vol.
15%
Marco Rubio
$175 Vol.
14%
Howard Lutnick
$385 Vol.
10%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
10%
Doug Collins
$76 Vol.
10%
Scott Bessent
$561 Vol.
8%
None before 2027
$301 Vol.
6%
Sean Duffy
$242 Vol.
5%
John Ratcliffe
$200 Vol.
12%
Linda McMahon
$419 Vol.
4%
Kelly Loeffler
$383 Vol.
4%
J.D. Vance
$247 Vol.
4%
Lee Zeldin
$233 Vol.
3%
Chris Wright
$207 Vol.
2%
Doug Burgum
$171 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$225 Vol.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$305 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$256 Vol.
40%
Mike Waltz
$201 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$5,315Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$5,315Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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