**Typhoon Chan-hom (No. 15) is the dominant driver pushing the market-implied probability of a Honshu landfall in August 2026 to near 100%.** As of mid-August, the system has tracked westward across the western Pacific and is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency to make landfall along the Pacific coast of the Kanto or southern Tohoku regions of Honshu around August 11. Official advisories place the storm east of Japan with sustained winds near 40 kt and a central pressure of 990 hPa, consistent with tropical storm to minimal typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. August represents the climatological peak for western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, with historical JMA data showing multiple systems typically recurving toward Japan’s main island each year. With the storm already in the basin and steering patterns favoring a direct approach, only an extreme and statistically rare deviation—such as rapid extratropical transition or an atypical blocking ridge—could prevent landfall before month-end. Updated JMA and JTWC model runs through the remainder of August will provide the next key data points for any late-month adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUn cyclone tropical arrivera-t-il sur Honshu en août 2026 ?
Un cyclone tropical arrivera-t-il sur Honshu en août 2026 ?
>99% chance
$1,447 Vol.
$1,447 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
>99% chance
$1,447 Vol.
$1,447 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.**Typhoon Chan-hom (No. 15) is the dominant driver pushing the market-implied probability of a Honshu landfall in August 2026 to near 100%.** As of mid-August, the system has tracked westward across the western Pacific and is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency to make landfall along the Pacific coast of the Kanto or southern Tohoku regions of Honshu around August 11. Official advisories place the storm east of Japan with sustained winds near 40 kt and a central pressure of 990 hPa, consistent with tropical storm to minimal typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. August represents the climatological peak for western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, with historical JMA data showing multiple systems typically recurving toward Japan’s main island each year. With the storm already in the basin and steering patterns favoring a direct approach, only an extreme and statistically rare deviation—such as rapid extratropical transition or an atypical blocking ridge—could prevent landfall before month-end. Updated JMA and JTWC model runs through the remainder of August will provide the next key data points for any late-month adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Marché ouvert : Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,447Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.**Typhoon Chan-hom (No. 15) is the dominant driver pushing the market-implied probability of a Honshu landfall in August 2026 to near 100%.** As of mid-August, the system has tracked westward across the western Pacific and is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency to make landfall along the Pacific coast of the Kanto or southern Tohoku regions of Honshu around August 11. Official advisories place the storm east of Japan with sustained winds near 40 kt and a central pressure of 990 hPa, consistent with tropical storm to minimal typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. August represents the climatological peak for western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, with historical JMA data showing multiple systems typically recurving toward Japan’s main island each year. With the storm already in the basin and steering patterns favoring a direct approach, only an extreme and statistically rare deviation—such as rapid extratropical transition or an atypical blocking ridge—could prevent landfall before month-end. Updated JMA and JTWC model runs through the remainder of August will provide the next key data points for any late-month adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a tropical cyclone makes landfall on Honshu, Japan between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
A tropical cyclone is a system classified by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) as a tropical storm or stronger, meaning maximum sustained winds (10-minute average) of at least 34 knots (17.2 m/s), in the JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the landfall. A system classified only as a tropical depression, or as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, at that time does not qualify.
Landfall means the center of the tropical cyclone's circulation physically crosses the coastline of Honshu. A system whose center crosses the coastline only of Hokkaido, Kyushu, Shikoku, Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, or any smaller island, or that passes over or near Honshu without its center crossing the Honshu coastline, does not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Japan Meteorological Agency's position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en). If a JMA advisory plots the storm's center over Honshu, this market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center over Honshu but credible international news reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, this market resolves "Yes", with classification taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. Where a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time, JMA is the default resolution source.
Once a qualifying landfall is reported, this market may remain open for up to 36 hours to establish confirmation, after which it will resolve according to the latest JMA data. This market may resolve based on the initial JMA advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that changes the storm's classification or position at the time of landfall.
Volume
$1,447Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 10, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
**Typhoon Chan-hom (No. 15) is the dominant driver pushing the market-implied probability of a Honshu landfall in August 2026 to near 100%.** As of mid-August, the system has tracked westward across the western Pacific and is forecast by the Japan Meteorological Agency to make landfall along the Pacific coast of the Kanto or southern Tohoku regions of Honshu around August 11. Official advisories place the storm east of Japan with sustained winds near 40 kt and a central pressure of 990 hPa, consistent with tropical storm to minimal typhoon intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. August represents the climatological peak for western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity, with historical JMA data showing multiple systems typically recurving toward Japan’s main island each year. With the storm already in the basin and steering patterns favoring a direct approach, only an extreme and statistically rare deviation—such as rapid extratropical transition or an atypical blocking ridge—could prevent landfall before month-end. Updated JMA and JTWC model runs through the remainder of August will provide the next key data points for any late-month adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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