Traders reflect a 98.6 percent consensus that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade preparations in recent weeks alongside reduced People's Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The May summit between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained standard positions on cross-strait issues without triggering new tensions, while Taiwan's legislature approved additional defense funding to strengthen deterrence. Logistical hurdles, economic costs, and potential allied responses continue to shape this outlook. Abrupt shifts in military posture or unforeseen incidents in the Taiwan Strait remain the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before the short resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$8,315,616 Vol.
$8,315,616 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Oui
$8,315,616 Vol.
$8,315,616 Vol.
30 juin 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders reflect a 98.6 percent consensus that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade preparations in recent weeks alongside reduced People's Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The May summit between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained standard positions on cross-strait issues without triggering new tensions, while Taiwan's legislature approved additional defense funding to strengthen deterrence. Logistical hurdles, economic costs, and potential allied responses continue to shape this outlook. Abrupt shifts in military posture or unforeseen incidents in the Taiwan Strait remain the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before the short resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$8,315,616Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders reflect a 98.6 percent consensus that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade preparations in recent weeks alongside reduced People's Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The May summit between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained standard positions on cross-strait issues without triggering new tensions, while Taiwan's legislature approved additional defense funding to strengthen deterrence. Logistical hurdles, economic costs, and potential allied responses continue to shape this outlook. Abrupt shifts in military posture or unforeseen incidents in the Taiwan Strait remain the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before the short resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$8,315,722Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders reflect a 98.6 percent consensus that China will not launch an invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations or blockade preparations in recent weeks alongside reduced People's Liberation Army incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone. The May summit between Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump maintained standard positions on cross-strait issues without triggering new tensions, while Taiwan's legislature approved additional defense funding to strengthen deterrence. Logistical hurdles, economic costs, and potential allied responses continue to shape this outlook. Abrupt shifts in military posture or unforeseen incidents in the Taiwan Strait remain the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before the short resolution window closes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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