The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman, with closing arguments completed on May 14 and jury deliberations set to begin next week, serves as the main driver behind the 71% market-implied probability against a settlement. Both parties have shown little interest in compromise, as evidenced by Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture being rebuffed and Altman’s defense of OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit transition during testimony. The case centers on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the artificial intelligence company’s evolution from its 2015 founding mission, with Musk seeking up to $150 billion in damages and leadership changes at OpenAI. Absent any last-minute resolution before the advisory jury verdict and judge’s ruling, traders see the entrenched positions and high stakes as outweighing typical incentives to settle in tech disputes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$10,788 Vol.
$10,788 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$10,788 Vol.
$10,788 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman, with closing arguments completed on May 14 and jury deliberations set to begin next week, serves as the main driver behind the 71% market-implied probability against a settlement. Both parties have shown little interest in compromise, as evidenced by Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture being rebuffed and Altman’s defense of OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit transition during testimony. The case centers on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the artificial intelligence company’s evolution from its 2015 founding mission, with Musk seeking up to $150 billion in damages and leadership changes at OpenAI. Absent any last-minute resolution before the advisory jury verdict and judge’s ruling, traders see the entrenched positions and high stakes as outweighing typical incentives to settle in tech disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$10,788Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman, with closing arguments completed on May 14 and jury deliberations set to begin next week, serves as the main driver behind the 71% market-implied probability against a settlement. Both parties have shown little interest in compromise, as evidenced by Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture being rebuffed and Altman’s defense of OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit transition during testimony. The case centers on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the artificial intelligence company’s evolution from its 2015 founding mission, with Musk seeking up to $150 billion in damages and leadership changes at OpenAI. Absent any last-minute resolution before the advisory jury verdict and judge’s ruling, traders see the entrenched positions and high stakes as outweighing typical incentives to settle in tech disputes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,791Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Musk v. Altman, with closing arguments completed on May 14 and jury deliberations set to begin next week, serves as the main driver behind the 71% market-implied probability against a settlement. Both parties have shown little interest in compromise, as evidenced by Musk’s pre-trial settlement overture being rebuffed and Altman’s defense of OpenAI’s nonprofit-to-for-profit transition during testimony. The case centers on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment tied to the artificial intelligence company’s evolution from its 2015 founding mission, with Musk seeking up to $150 billion in damages and leadership changes at OpenAI. Absent any last-minute resolution before the advisory jury verdict and judge’s ruling, traders see the entrenched positions and high stakes as outweighing typical incentives to settle in tech disputes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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