Musk’s May 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after his 130-day special government employee term, followed by a return to leading Tesla, SpaceX, and X, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 reappointment. Traders cite his focus on private-sector AI, autonomous vehicles, and platform priorities, plus the quiet shuttering of DOGE later that year, as evidence of limited appetite for another formal role. Continued informal advisory input, including a May 2026 China delegation trip with other tech CEOs, has not translated into cabinet-level signals. A major policy crisis or sudden strategic alignment could still reopen the door, though recent developments show no momentum toward such an outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s May 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after his 130-day special government employee term, followed by a return to leading Tesla, SpaceX, and X, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 reappointment. Traders cite his focus on private-sector AI, autonomous vehicles, and platform priorities, plus the quiet shuttering of DOGE later that year, as evidence of limited appetite for another formal role. Continued informal advisory input, including a May 2026 China delegation trip with other tech CEOs, has not translated into cabinet-level signals. A major policy crisis or sudden strategic alignment could still reopen the door, though recent developments show no momentum toward such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$9,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s May 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after his 130-day special government employee term, followed by a return to leading Tesla, SpaceX, and X, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 reappointment. Traders cite his focus on private-sector AI, autonomous vehicles, and platform priorities, plus the quiet shuttering of DOGE later that year, as evidence of limited appetite for another formal role. Continued informal advisory input, including a May 2026 China delegation trip with other tech CEOs, has not translated into cabinet-level signals. A major policy crisis or sudden strategic alignment could still reopen the door, though recent developments show no momentum toward such an outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,666Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Musk’s May 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after his 130-day special government employee term, followed by a return to leading Tesla, SpaceX, and X, underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 reappointment. Traders cite his focus on private-sector AI, autonomous vehicles, and platform priorities, plus the quiet shuttering of DOGE later that year, as evidence of limited appetite for another formal role. Continued informal advisory input, including a May 2026 China delegation trip with other tech CEOs, has not translated into cabinet-level signals. A major policy crisis or sudden strategic alignment could still reopen the door, though recent developments show no momentum toward such an outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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