Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-212 majority in the House with four vacancies and one independent caucusing with them, a margin sufficient to withstand limited net losses ahead of the November 2026 elections. With only three months remaining, the short timeline limits opportunities for special elections or unexpected vacancies to produce enough Democratic flips to drop the party below the 218-seat threshold. Recent special election results have shown mixed partisan shifts without altering overall control, consistent with historical patterns where major House turnover occurs primarily through general elections rather than interim contests. Traders assign 98% probability to retention because structural barriers—including the compressed schedule and current seat math—make pre-midterm loss improbable. Plausible but low-probability scenarios that could still shift the balance include clustered Democratic victories in remaining specials or multiple simultaneous vacancies filled by the opposing party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$21,019 Vol.
$21,019 Vol.
Oui
$21,019 Vol.
$21,019 Vol.
A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 13, 2026, 6:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-212 majority in the House with four vacancies and one independent caucusing with them, a margin sufficient to withstand limited net losses ahead of the November 2026 elections. With only three months remaining, the short timeline limits opportunities for special elections or unexpected vacancies to produce enough Democratic flips to drop the party below the 218-seat threshold. Recent special election results have shown mixed partisan shifts without altering overall control, consistent with historical patterns where major House turnover occurs primarily through general elections rather than interim contests. Traders assign 98% probability to retention because structural barriers—including the compressed schedule and current seat math—make pre-midterm loss improbable. Plausible but low-probability scenarios that could still shift the balance include clustered Democratic victories in remaining specials or multiple simultaneous vacancies filled by the opposing party.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 auront-elles lieu comme prévu ?
Le Parti républicain détiendra-t-il moins de 190 sièges à la Chambre après les élections de mi-mandat de 2026 ?
Y aura-t-il entre 120 et 125 millions de votes exprimés lors des élections de mi-mandat de la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis en 2026 ?
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