**Recent diplomatic developments between the US and Iran have created a narrow window for a potential Vance handshake with an Iranian official before the June 20 resolution date.** On June 15, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance virtually signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to end the blockade of Iranian ports, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and initiate 60 days of nuclear talks. A formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, with Vance expected to lead or join the US delegation. This compressed timeline—only four days remaining—explains the closely contested odds. While the virtual agreement advances US-Iran engagement, a physical handshake requires Vance’s in-person attendance and direct interaction at the Geneva event or another meeting. Traders weigh the high likelihood of Vance’s participation against uncertainties around final attendance, last-minute scheduling shifts, or diplomatic protocol that could prevent a handshake by the deadline. Key factors maintaining competitive balance include the preliminary nature of the deal, with further technical negotiations still needed, and the absence of confirmed public appearances between Vance and Iranian officials in the immediate term. A confirmed Vance appearance in Geneva would likely shift sentiment toward “Yes,” while any delay, cancellation, or virtual-only continuation would reinforce “No.”