Strong recent observations drive the 96.5% market-implied probability of an August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, with June similarly at ~1.49°C according to Berkeley Earth; sea surface temperatures hit record highs for the month, and daily global values reached new peaks early in August amid an intensifying El Niño (Niño 3.4 index near +2.6°C). These align with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in surface temperatures. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of sufficient short-term cooling from atmospheric variability or model revisions to push the final monthly average below 1.29°C, though final official datasets could incorporate minor adjustments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाअगस्त 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
अगस्त 2026 तापमान में वृद्धि (ºC)
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 वॉल्यूम
$13,894 वॉल्यूम
1 अग, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
96%
>1.29ºC 96.4%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$13,894 वॉल्यूम
$13,894 वॉल्यूम
1 अग, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,077 वॉल्यूम
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,549 वॉल्यूम
3%
>1.29ºC
$6,270 वॉल्यूम
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong recent observations drive the 96.5% market-implied probability of an August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, with June similarly at ~1.49°C according to Berkeley Earth; sea surface temperatures hit record highs for the month, and daily global values reached new peaks early in August amid an intensifying El Niño (Niño 3.4 index near +2.6°C). These align with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in surface temperatures. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of sufficient short-term cooling from atmospheric variability or model revisions to push the final monthly average below 1.29°C, though final official datasets could incorporate minor adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$13,894समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong recent observations drive the 96.5% market-implied probability of an August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, with June similarly at ~1.49°C according to Berkeley Earth; sea surface temperatures hit record highs for the month, and daily global values reached new peaks early in August amid an intensifying El Niño (Niño 3.4 index near +2.6°C). These align with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in surface temperatures. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of sufficient short-term cooling from atmospheric variability or model revisions to push the final monthly average below 1.29°C, though final official datasets could incorporate minor adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
वॉल्यूम
$13,894समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong recent observations drive the 96.5% market-implied probability of an August 2026 global mean temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. July 2026 tied for the second-warmest July on record at 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels per Copernicus ERA5 data, with June similarly at ~1.49°C according to Berkeley Earth; sea surface temperatures hit record highs for the month, and daily global values reached new peaks early in August amid an intensifying El Niño (Niño 3.4 index near +2.6°C). These align with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend and recent acceleration in surface temperatures. Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of sufficient short-term cooling from atmospheric variability or model revisions to push the final monthly average below 1.29°C, though final official datasets could incorporate minor adjustments.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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