Canada's population decline at the start of 2026, confirmed by Statistics Canada data released March 18 showing a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million as of January 1 amid falling non-permanent residents, anchors trader consensus for a full-year downturn. Federal Immigration Levels Plan announced November 2025 caps new permanent residents at 380,000 and temporary arrivals at 385,000—sharp reductions from prior years to address housing pressures—while Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or zero growth through 2026. Low natural increase from births trailing deaths, combined with non-renewals and outflows, sustains the 61% implied probability on "Down," though upcoming quarterly estimates could shift sentiment if net migration rebounds.