Chile’s central bank held its monetary policy rate steady at 4.5% in September amid annual inflation at 4.1% in that month—slightly below forecasts—and a sharply reduced 2026 GDP growth outlook of 0.25-0.75%. Recent September CPI data showed modest monthly gains driven by fuel costs, while core inflation cooled, reinforcing trader expectations for no change at the October 26-27 meeting. The board’s meeting-by-meeting approach, persistent external uncertainties including U.S.-Iran tensions, and inflation projections returning to the 3% target only in mid-2027 underpin the strong 87% market-implied probability of stability. Small odds on rate shifts reflect limited room for action given above-target prices alongside subdued demand.