Ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict has elevated the strategic value of Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. Recent U.S. strikes since March 2026 have targeted military sites on these islands without disrupting oil infrastructure, contributing to intermittent export halts, tanker disruptions, and Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid supply concerns. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over potential escalations or occupations before the August 31, 2026 resolution date, with market-implied odds shaped by energy revenue impacts, shipping route risks, and macroeconomic volatility tied to any shift in Iranian sovereignty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$91,726 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
4%
$91,726 वॉल्यूम
August 31
$23,708 वॉल्यूम
1%
September 30
$68,018 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict has elevated the strategic value of Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. Recent U.S. strikes since March 2026 have targeted military sites on these islands without disrupting oil infrastructure, contributing to intermittent export halts, tanker disruptions, and Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid supply concerns. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over potential escalations or occupations before the August 31, 2026 resolution date, with market-implied odds shaped by energy revenue impacts, shipping route risks, and macroeconomic volatility tied to any shift in Iranian sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$91,726समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict has elevated the strategic value of Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. Recent U.S. strikes since March 2026 have targeted military sites on these islands without disrupting oil infrastructure, contributing to intermittent export halts, tanker disruptions, and Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid supply concerns. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over potential escalations or occupations before the August 31, 2026 resolution date, with market-implied odds shaped by energy revenue impacts, shipping route risks, and macroeconomic volatility tied to any shift in Iranian sovereignty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$91,726समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran military conflict has elevated the strategic value of Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude exports, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi islands that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil and LNG trade. Recent U.S. strikes since March 2026 have targeted military sites on these islands without disrupting oil infrastructure, contributing to intermittent export halts, tanker disruptions, and Brent crude prices exceeding $100 per barrel amid supply concerns. Trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over potential escalations or occupations before the August 31, 2026 resolution date, with market-implied odds shaped by energy revenue impacts, shipping route risks, and macroeconomic volatility tied to any shift in Iranian sovereignty.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न