Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to no changes across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast maintenance of the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% in the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. This positioning solidified following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.3%) and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, underscoring persistent inflation pressures and a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment that have quelled rate-cut speculation. CME FedWatch futures echo this hold bias for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or payrolls data prompting a policy pivot, though trader capital heavily discounts such risks ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाविराम–विराम–विराम 97.5%
रोक–रोक–कटौती 1.9%
अन्य <1%
$1,091,143 वॉल्यूम
$1,091,143 वॉल्यूम
17 जून, 2026
विराम–विराम–विराम
98%
रोक–रोक–कटौती
2%
अन्य
1%
विराम–विराम–विराम 97.5%
रोक–रोक–कटौती 1.9%
अन्य <1%
$1,091,143 वॉल्यूम
$1,091,143 वॉल्यूम
17 जून, 2026
विराम–विराम–विराम
$60,394 वॉल्यूम
98%
रोक–रोक–कटौती
$39,767 वॉल्यूम
2%
अन्य
$245,640 वॉल्यूम
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to no changes across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast maintenance of the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% in the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. This positioning solidified following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.3%) and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, underscoring persistent inflation pressures and a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment that have quelled rate-cut speculation. CME FedWatch futures echo this hold bias for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or payrolls data prompting a policy pivot, though trader capital heavily discounts such risks ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,091,143समाप्ति तिथि
17 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to no changes across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast maintenance of the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% in the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. This positioning solidified following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.3%) and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, underscoring persistent inflation pressures and a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment that have quelled rate-cut speculation. CME FedWatch futures echo this hold bias for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or payrolls data prompting a policy pivot, though trader capital heavily discounts such risks ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
वॉल्यूम
$1,091,143समाप्ति तिथि
17 जून, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to no changes across the March 17-18, April 28-29, and June 16-17 FOMC meetings—Pause–Pause–Pause—reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast maintenance of the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75% in the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. This positioning solidified following April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.3%) and nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs, underscoring persistent inflation pressures and a steady labor market at 4.3% unemployment that have quelled rate-cut speculation. CME FedWatch futures echo this hold bias for June. Realistic challenges include softer May CPI or payrolls data prompting a policy pivot, though trader capital heavily discounts such risks ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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