Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, has produced the closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 federal funds rate hike. The FOMC has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% through July meetings, though three dissents favored tightening and the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one increase by year-end under Chair Warsh. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed core inflation readings (2.5% ex-food and energy) create offsetting pressures, with upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the monetary policy path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
55% संभावना
$7,884,674 वॉल्यूम
$7,884,674 वॉल्यूम
8 दिस, 2026
हाँ
55% संभावना
$7,884,674 वॉल्यूम
$7,884,674 वॉल्यूम
8 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, has produced the closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 federal funds rate hike. The FOMC has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% through July meetings, though three dissents favored tightening and the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one increase by year-end under Chair Warsh. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed core inflation readings (2.5% ex-food and energy) create offsetting pressures, with upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the monetary policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$7,884,674समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, has produced the closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 federal funds rate hike. The FOMC has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% through July meetings, though three dissents favored tightening and the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one increase by year-end under Chair Warsh. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed core inflation readings (2.5% ex-food and energy) create offsetting pressures, with upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the monetary policy path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$7,884,674समाप्ति तिथि
9 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026, driven by energy supply shocks amid Middle East tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.1% unemployment and solid job gains, has produced the closely balanced 54.5% market-implied probability of a 2026 federal funds rate hike. The FOMC has held the target range at 3.50-3.75% through July meetings, though three dissents favored tightening and the June dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one increase by year-end under Chair Warsh. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed core inflation readings (2.5% ex-food and energy) create offsetting pressures, with upcoming September CPI data and the next FOMC meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift trader consensus on the monetary policy path.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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