Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIL -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
IL -04 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$43,347 वॉल्यूम
$43,347 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
97%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
3%
$43,347 वॉल्यूम
$43,347 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$28,893 वॉल्यूम
97%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$14,454 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$43,347समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$43,347समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois' 4th Congressional District, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+17, has delivered Democratic general election victories by 40+ points in recent cycles, anchoring trader consensus at 96.5% for the Democratic Party despite an open seat after Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García's retirement. Patty García, his former chief of staff, won the uncontested March 17 Democratic primary and secured a Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsement on May 12, solidifying her frontrunner status in the Latino-majority district. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo, the 2024 runner-up with 27%, faces steep barriers amid multiple independents protesting the primary process. Late scandals targeting García, consolidated independent vote-splitting Democrats, or a national GOP midterm wave could challenge this outlook before the November 3 ballot.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न