Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following the late-February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for Iran’s leadership at the end of 2026. The rapid consolidation occurred during active conflict, with the clerical body favoring continuity in hardline governance and resistance to external pressure over other candidates. Mojtaba has since operated within a security-led consensus that includes military and judicial figures, reflecting transitional power-sharing rather than sole authority. This structure, combined with the regime’s emphasis on institutional stability through 2026, underpins his elevated implied probability relative to lower-odds alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. No major leadership shifts have been reported in the intervening months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
2026 के अंत में ईरान के नेता?
मोज़तबा खामनेई 64.5%
रज़ा पहलवी 8%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 4.2%
अब्बास अराक़ची 2.8%
$8,919,751 वॉल्यूम
$8,919,751 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
65%
रज़ा पहलवी
8%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
4%
अब्बास अराक़ची
3%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
3%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
2%
अहमद वाहिदी
2%
नविद शोमाली
1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
1%
हसन रूहानी
1%
हसन खोमेनी
1%
मरीयम रजवी
1%
मसूद रजवी
1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
<1%
अली मुतहरी
<1%
सादेग महसूली
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
<1%
मोज़तबा खामनेई 64.5%
रज़ा पहलवी 8%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ 4.2%
अब्बास अराक़ची 2.8%
$8,919,751 वॉल्यूम
$8,919,751 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
मोज़तबा खामनेई
$2,235,469 वॉल्यूम
65%
रज़ा पहलवी
$210,339 वॉल्यूम
8%
मोहम्मद-बाघेर ग़ालिबाफ
$229,854 वॉल्यूम
4%
अब्बास अराक़ची
$221,090 वॉल्यूम
3%
कोई राष्ट्राध्यक्ष नहीं
$496,471 वॉल्यूम
3%
मसूद पजेश्कियान
$332,472 वॉल्यूम
2%
अहमद वाहिदी
$305,529 वॉल्यूम
2%
नविद शोमाली
$89,614 वॉल्यूम
1%
महमूद अहमदीनेजाद
$148,791 वॉल्यूम
1%
अलिरेज़ा अराफ़ी
$867,081 वॉल्यूम
1%
हसन रूहानी
$360,642 वॉल्यूम
1%
हसन खोमेनी
$819,336 वॉल्यूम
1%
मरीयम रजवी
$324,785 वॉल्यूम
1%
मसूद रजवी
$81,554 वॉल्यूम
1%
मोहम्मद खातामी
$454,129 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग लारीजानी
$195,607 वॉल्यूम
<1%
घोलाम-अली हद्दाद-अदेल
$104,860 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली असगर हेज़ाज़ी
$93,760 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोहम्मद मिरबाकिरी
$291,767 वॉल्यूम
<1%
हसन शरियतमदारी
$181,202 वॉल्यूम
<1%
रज़ा पीरज़ादेह
$52,010 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा पूर्मोहम्मदी
$101,935 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सईद जल्लीली
$83,015 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मोसेन अराकी
$67,545 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सैयद हुसैन मौसवीयन
$53,928 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मुस्तफा हिजरी
$33,427 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अली मुतहरी
$87,111 वॉल्यूम
<1%
सादेग महसूली
$76,778 वॉल्यूम
<1%
नासिर होसेनी
$39,296 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अहमद हुसैनी खोरासानी
$43,670 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following the late-February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for Iran’s leadership at the end of 2026. The rapid consolidation occurred during active conflict, with the clerical body favoring continuity in hardline governance and resistance to external pressure over other candidates. Mojtaba has since operated within a security-led consensus that includes military and judicial figures, reflecting transitional power-sharing rather than sole authority. This structure, combined with the regime’s emphasis on institutional stability through 2026, underpins his elevated implied probability relative to lower-odds alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. No major leadership shifts have been reported in the intervening months.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$8,919,751समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following the late-February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for Iran’s leadership at the end of 2026. The rapid consolidation occurred during active conflict, with the clerical body favoring continuity in hardline governance and resistance to external pressure over other candidates. Mojtaba has since operated within a security-led consensus that includes military and judicial figures, reflecting transitional power-sharing rather than sole authority. This structure, combined with the regime’s emphasis on institutional stability through 2026, underpins his elevated implied probability relative to lower-odds alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. No major leadership shifts have been reported in the intervening months.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
वॉल्यूम
$8,919,751समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following the late-February assassination of his father Ali Khamenei amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in trader consensus for Iran’s leadership at the end of 2026. The rapid consolidation occurred during active conflict, with the clerical body favoring continuity in hardline governance and resistance to external pressure over other candidates. Mojtaba has since operated within a security-led consensus that includes military and judicial figures, reflecting transitional power-sharing rather than sole authority. This structure, combined with the regime’s emphasis on institutional stability through 2026, underpins his elevated implied probability relative to lower-odds alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf. No major leadership shifts have been reported in the intervening months.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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