Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and again from February to April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites such as Taleghan 2. These operations inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure and reduced Iran’s capacity to produce weapons-grade material or conduct device tests, according to assessments from the IAEA and independent analysts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including proposals channeled through Pakistan, remain stalled over enrichment limits and related issues, while IAEA inspectors have limited access to affected sites. These developments have extended technical timelines and raised barriers to any near-term nuclear test, aligning with the 91% trader consensus against such an event before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
2027 से पहले ईरान का परमाणु परीक्षण?
हाँ
$192,428 वॉल्यूम
$192,428 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$192,428 वॉल्यूम
$192,428 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and again from February to April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites such as Taleghan 2. These operations inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure and reduced Iran’s capacity to produce weapons-grade material or conduct device tests, according to assessments from the IAEA and independent analysts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including proposals channeled through Pakistan, remain stalled over enrichment limits and related issues, while IAEA inspectors have limited access to affected sites. These developments have extended technical timelines and raised barriers to any near-term nuclear test, aligning with the 91% trader consensus against such an event before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$192,428समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and again from February to April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites such as Taleghan 2. These operations inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure and reduced Iran’s capacity to produce weapons-grade material or conduct device tests, according to assessments from the IAEA and independent analysts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including proposals channeled through Pakistan, remain stalled over enrichment limits and related issues, while IAEA inspectors have limited access to affected sites. These developments have extended technical timelines and raised barriers to any near-term nuclear test, aligning with the 91% trader consensus against such an event before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$192,428समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Military strikes by the United States and Israel in June 2025 and again from February to April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization sites such as Taleghan 2. These operations inflicted extensive damage to infrastructure and reduced Iran’s capacity to produce weapons-grade material or conduct device tests, according to assessments from the IAEA and independent analysts. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including proposals channeled through Pakistan, remain stalled over enrichment limits and related issues, while IAEA inspectors have limited access to affected sites. These developments have extended technical timelines and raised barriers to any near-term nuclear test, aligning with the 91% trader consensus against such an event before the end of 2026.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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