The June 9 Republican primary for South Carolina’s open 1st Congressional District produced no majority winner in a crowded field, advancing Charleston County Councilmember Jenny Costa Honeycutt (22 percent) and State Representative Mark Smith (18 percent) to a June 23 runoff. Traders assign Smith the higher implied probability of securing the nomination, reflecting assessments of his statehouse profile, fundraising, and appeal in the Lowcountry districts that decide runoffs. Honeycutt’s first-place showing stemmed from emphasis on affordability and fiscal restraint, yet her narrower path to 50 percent in the two-candidate contest leaves room for Smith to consolidate support from eliminated candidates including Sam McCown. Minor candidates such as Alex Pelbath and Jay Byars trail far behind, with negligible shares indicating limited remaining influence on the outcome.