No new indictments of Iranian government agents for espionage, intelligence collection, or covert operations have been announced by U.S. authorities in recent weeks, leaving little time for federal prosecutors to complete the required filings before May 31. The most recent qualifying case dates to early April, with subsequent arrests involving Iranian nationals—such as Shamim Mafi on sanctions and arms-brokering charges—falling outside the market’s criteria for directed covert activity. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement has further reduced the likelihood of aggressive enforcement actions that could produce new charges in the narrow remaining window. Traders view the 71.5 percent “No” price as reflecting these procedural and timing realities rather than any fundamental shift in counterintelligence priorities.