Israeli naval forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla—comprising over 20 vessels and 175 activists—in international waters near Crete on April 30, disabling most boats and detaining participants, who were largely released or deported by May 10. No humanitarian aid was found aboard, per Israeli reports, reinforcing enforcement of the longstanding maritime blockade on Gaza amid the ongoing conflict. With the primary mission thwarted early and organizers regrouping in Turkey without confirmed new sailings, trader consensus reflects near-certainty of failure by May 31, consistent with historical precedents where similar aid flotillas were blocked. Only an undetected new convoy or sudden diplomatic shift could alter this trajectory.