The SNP's long-standing hold on Aberdeen South since 2019, combined with the swift selection of experienced former MP Richard Gordon Thomson as its candidate following Stephen Flynn's May 2026 resignation over dual-mandate rules, has driven trader consensus toward a clear SNP victory on 18 June. Thomson's local government background and emphasis on the North Sea energy sector align with constituency priorities, reinforcing the 72% implied probability. Scottish Conservatives' Douglas Lumsden sits second at 27%, reflecting limited inroads in this seat despite national positioning and campaign focus on oil and gas policy. Minor-party candidates remain at negligible levels, with no late developments altering the established positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiRichard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
Richard Gordon Thomson
72%
Douglas Lumsden
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
1%
Mel Sullivan
1%
David Ballantine
<1%
Jo Hart
<1%
Richard Gordon Thomson 72%
Douglas Lumsden 27%
Nurul Hoque Ali <1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%
$10,307 Vol.
$10,307 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
Richard Gordon Thomson
$1,876 Vol.
72%
Douglas Lumsden
$2,701 Vol.
27%
Nurul Hoque Ali
$1,366 Vol.
1%
Jorg Shelton-Eckstein
$1,135 Vol.
1%
Mel Sullivan
$1,065 Vol.
1%
David Ballantine
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
Jo Hart
$1,051 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).The SNP's long-standing hold on Aberdeen South since 2019, combined with the swift selection of experienced former MP Richard Gordon Thomson as its candidate following Stephen Flynn's May 2026 resignation over dual-mandate rules, has driven trader consensus toward a clear SNP victory on 18 June. Thomson's local government background and emphasis on the North Sea energy sector align with constituency priorities, reinforcing the 72% implied probability. Scottish Conservatives' Douglas Lumsden sits second at 27%, reflecting limited inroads in this seat despite national positioning and campaign focus on oil and gas policy. Minor-party candidates remain at negligible levels, with no late developments altering the established positioning.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$10,307Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).The SNP's long-standing hold on Aberdeen South since 2019, combined with the swift selection of experienced former MP Richard Gordon Thomson as its candidate following Stephen Flynn's May 2026 resignation over dual-mandate rules, has driven trader consensus toward a clear SNP victory on 18 June. Thomson's local government background and emphasis on the North Sea energy sector align with constituency priorities, reinforcing the 72% implied probability. Scottish Conservatives' Douglas Lumsden sits second at 27%, reflecting limited inroads in this seat despite national positioning and campaign focus on oil and gas policy. Minor-party candidates remain at negligible levels, with no late developments altering the established positioning.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Volume
$10,307Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 19, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The SNP's long-standing hold on Aberdeen South since 2019, combined with the swift selection of experienced former MP Richard Gordon Thomson as its candidate following Stephen Flynn's May 2026 resignation over dual-mandate rules, has driven trader consensus toward a clear SNP victory on 18 June. Thomson's local government background and emphasis on the North Sea energy sector align with constituency priorities, reinforcing the 72% implied probability. Scottish Conservatives' Douglas Lumsden sits second at 27%, reflecting limited inroads in this seat despite national positioning and campaign focus on oil and gas policy. Minor-party candidates remain at negligible levels, with no late developments altering the established positioning.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan