The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes drives the 93.3% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS historical records document only four such events worldwide since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku quake at 9.0–9.1. Global seismic monitoring networks show no current indicators of megathrust activity capable of reaching this threshold within the remaining months of 2026. While plate-boundary strain continues to accumulate in subduction zones, the short timeframe and strict magnitude criterion create substantial scientific uncertainty. New USGS data releases or an unexpected model shift could alter odds, yet current observations align with the strong trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$191,886 Vol.
$191,886 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,886 Vol.
$191,886 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes drives the 93.3% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS historical records document only four such events worldwide since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku quake at 9.0–9.1. Global seismic monitoring networks show no current indicators of megathrust activity capable of reaching this threshold within the remaining months of 2026. While plate-boundary strain continues to accumulate in subduction zones, the short timeframe and strict magnitude criterion create substantial scientific uncertainty. New USGS data releases or an unexpected model shift could alter odds, yet current observations align with the strong trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$191,886Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes drives the 93.3% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS historical records document only four such events worldwide since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku quake at 9.0–9.1. Global seismic monitoring networks show no current indicators of megathrust activity capable of reaching this threshold within the remaining months of 2026. While plate-boundary strain continues to accumulate in subduction zones, the short timeframe and strict magnitude criterion create substantial scientific uncertainty. New USGS data releases or an unexpected model shift could alter odds, yet current observations align with the strong trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$191,886Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes drives the 93.3% market-implied probability for “No.” USGS historical records document only four such events worldwide since 1900, with the most recent being the 2011 Tohoku quake at 9.0–9.1. Global seismic monitoring networks show no current indicators of megathrust activity capable of reaching this threshold within the remaining months of 2026. While plate-boundary strain continues to accumulate in subduction zones, the short timeframe and strict magnitude criterion create substantial scientific uncertainty. New USGS data releases or an unexpected model shift could alter odds, yet current observations align with the strong trader consensus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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