**US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept the islands in focus amid the ongoing regional conflict.** Iran has held the disputed territory since 1971 despite UAE claims, using it for Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and coastal defenses that influence shipping through the chokepoint. Recent UAE airstrikes on the island in May and continued US targeting of military sites have raised questions about potential occupation or control shifts, yet no verified change in Iranian administration has occurred. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to any near-term transition, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter on-the-ground sovereignty before late-August deadlines. Further escalation, ceasefire talks, or Gulf Cooperation Council involvement could influence future assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$88,419 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$88,419 Vol.
August 31
$81,751 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept the islands in focus amid the ongoing regional conflict.** Iran has held the disputed territory since 1971 despite UAE claims, using it for Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and coastal defenses that influence shipping through the chokepoint. Recent UAE airstrikes on the island in May and continued US targeting of military sites have raised questions about potential occupation or control shifts, yet no verified change in Iranian administration has occurred. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to any near-term transition, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter on-the-ground sovereignty before late-August deadlines. Further escalation, ceasefire talks, or Gulf Cooperation Council involvement could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$88,419Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept the islands in focus amid the ongoing regional conflict.** Iran has held the disputed territory since 1971 despite UAE claims, using it for Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and coastal defenses that influence shipping through the chokepoint. Recent UAE airstrikes on the island in May and continued US targeting of military sites have raised questions about potential occupation or control shifts, yet no verified change in Iranian administration has occurred. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to any near-term transition, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter on-the-ground sovereignty before late-August deadlines. Further escalation, ceasefire talks, or Gulf Cooperation Council involvement could influence future assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$88,419Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military strikes on Abu Musa in July 2026, part of broader operations targeting Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz, have kept the islands in focus amid the ongoing regional conflict.** Iran has held the disputed territory since 1971 despite UAE claims, using it for Revolutionary Guard bases, missiles, and coastal defenses that influence shipping through the chokepoint. Recent UAE airstrikes on the island in May and continued US targeting of military sites have raised questions about potential occupation or control shifts, yet no verified change in Iranian administration has occurred. Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to any near-term transition, reflecting the absence of ground operations or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter on-the-ground sovereignty before late-August deadlines. Further escalation, ceasefire talks, or Gulf Cooperation Council involvement could influence future assessments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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