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icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

icon for Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

23% peluang
Polymarket

$11,490 Vol.

23% peluang
Polymarket

$11,490 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent agency actions and stable outlooks underpin the 75% market-implied odds against another U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027. Moody’s completed its cycle with the May 2025 shift to Aa1 and a stable outlook, while Fitch affirmed AA+ with stable outlook in August 2025 and S&P maintained comparable positioning, signaling no immediate further cuts absent sharp fiscal deterioration. Strong global demand for Treasuries, supported by the dollar’s reserve status, has contained yields despite debt exceeding $39 trillion and CBO projections of rising debt-to-GDP. Agency review timelines of 12–18 months limit near-term pressure, though fiscal 2026 budget outcomes, FOMC rate decisions, and any geopolitical shocks remain key swing factors for trader sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$11,490
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent agency actions and stable outlooks underpin the 75% market-implied odds against another U.S. sovereign downgrade before 2027. Moody’s completed its cycle with the May 2025 shift to Aa1 and a stable outlook, while Fitch affirmed AA+ with stable outlook in August 2025 and S&P maintained comparable positioning, signaling no immediate further cuts absent sharp fiscal deterioration. Strong global demand for Treasuries, supported by the dollar’s reserve status, has contained yields despite debt exceeding $39 trillion and CBO projections of rising debt-to-GDP. Agency review timelines of 12–18 months limit near-term pressure, though fiscal 2026 budget outcomes, FOMC rate decisions, and any geopolitical shocks remain key swing factors for trader sentiment.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$11,490
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 19% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 19¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 19% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" telah menghasilkan $11.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" adalah 19% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 19% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Another US debt downgrade before 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.