Recent Houthi threats, including a July maritime blockade on Saudi shipping and early August ballistic missile strikes that killed six aboard a cargo vessel, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings often in the low 20s and weekly averages near 266 vessels. These security risks, compounded by elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, underpin the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects stabilized but suppressed volumes amid ambiguous U.S.-Iran peace talks, though any de-escalation before month-end could lift averages toward the 25-29 bin at 26.5%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 7%
$14,989 Vol.
$14,989 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
7%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 7%
$14,989 Vol.
$14,989 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,063 Vol.
7%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July maritime blockade on Saudi shipping and early August ballistic missile strikes that killed six aboard a cargo vessel, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings often in the low 20s and weekly averages near 266 vessels. These security risks, compounded by elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, underpin the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects stabilized but suppressed volumes amid ambiguous U.S.-Iran peace talks, though any de-escalation before month-end could lift averages toward the 25-29 bin at 26.5%.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$14,989Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July maritime blockade on Saudi shipping and early August ballistic missile strikes that killed six aboard a cargo vessel, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings often in the low 20s and weekly averages near 266 vessels. These security risks, compounded by elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, underpin the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects stabilized but suppressed volumes amid ambiguous U.S.-Iran peace talks, though any de-escalation before month-end could lift averages toward the 25-29 bin at 26.5%.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,989Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETSumber Resolusi
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats, including a July maritime blockade on Saudi shipping and early August ballistic missile strikes that killed six aboard a cargo vessel, have driven sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily crossings often in the low 20s and weekly averages near 266 vessels. These security risks, compounded by elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope, underpin the market's leading <25 outcome at 44.8% implied probability. Trader consensus reflects stabilized but suppressed volumes amid ambiguous U.S.-Iran peace talks, though any de-escalation before month-end could lift averages toward the 25-29 bin at 26.5%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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