Alibaba holds an overwhelming 83.5% implied probability in this market because its Qwen series and related models have maintained top positions on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard among Chinese developers heading into late June. Recent infrastructure spending on AI data centers and the June 15 unveiling of specialized models for robotics and agentic systems have reinforced trader confidence in sustained performance gains. Z.ai sits at 12.8% after releasing GLM-5 variants through early 2026 and completing its Hong Kong IPO, yet compute constraints earlier in the year and slower recent leaderboard movement limit its upside. DeepSeek’s April V4 updates advanced coding and reasoning benchmarks but remain at just 2.2%, reflecting narrower current leads over the front-runner. The resolution on June 30 depends directly on final arena rankings for eligible Chinese companies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAlibaba 97.0%
Z.ai 1.4%
Xiaomi <1%
Moonshot <1%
$191,821 Vol.
$191,821 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Alibaba
97%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
<1%
Baidu
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meituan
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Alibaba 97.0%
Z.ai 1.4%
Xiaomi <1%
Moonshot <1%
$191,821 Vol.
$191,821 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Alibaba
$46,200 Vol.
97%
Z.ai
$43,344 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$20,232 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$15,686 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$15,600 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$16,949 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$9,985 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,805 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$2,897 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,595 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$3,528 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba holds an overwhelming 83.5% implied probability in this market because its Qwen series and related models have maintained top positions on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard among Chinese developers heading into late June. Recent infrastructure spending on AI data centers and the June 15 unveiling of specialized models for robotics and agentic systems have reinforced trader confidence in sustained performance gains. Z.ai sits at 12.8% after releasing GLM-5 variants through early 2026 and completing its Hong Kong IPO, yet compute constraints earlier in the year and slower recent leaderboard movement limit its upside. DeepSeek’s April V4 updates advanced coding and reasoning benchmarks but remain at just 2.2%, reflecting narrower current leads over the front-runner. The resolution on June 30 depends directly on final arena rankings for eligible Chinese companies.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Pasar Dibuka: May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$191,821Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba holds an overwhelming 83.5% implied probability in this market because its Qwen series and related models have maintained top positions on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard among Chinese developers heading into late June. Recent infrastructure spending on AI data centers and the June 15 unveiling of specialized models for robotics and agentic systems have reinforced trader confidence in sustained performance gains. Z.ai sits at 12.8% after releasing GLM-5 variants through early 2026 and completing its Hong Kong IPO, yet compute constraints earlier in the year and slower recent leaderboard movement limit its upside. DeepSeek’s April V4 updates advanced coding and reasoning benchmarks but remain at just 2.2%, reflecting narrower current leads over the front-runner. The resolution on June 30 depends directly on final arena rankings for eligible Chinese companies.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$191,821Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba holds an overwhelming 83.5% implied probability in this market because its Qwen series and related models have maintained top positions on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard among Chinese developers heading into late June. Recent infrastructure spending on AI data centers and the June 15 unveiling of specialized models for robotics and agentic systems have reinforced trader confidence in sustained performance gains. Z.ai sits at 12.8% after releasing GLM-5 variants through early 2026 and completing its Hong Kong IPO, yet compute constraints earlier in the year and slower recent leaderboard movement limit its upside. DeepSeek’s April V4 updates advanced coding and reasoning benchmarks but remain at just 2.2%, reflecting narrower current leads over the front-runner. The resolution on June 30 depends directly on final arena rankings for eligible Chinese companies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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