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Pemilihan Umum·Pajak

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

icon for Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Pemilihan Umum·Pajak

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

88% peluang
Polymarket

$130,590 Vol.

88% peluang
Polymarket

$130,590 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Recent submission of 1.55 million signatures for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act initiative—nearly double the 875,000 required—has positioned the one-time 5 percent wealth tax measure for likely inclusion on California's November ballot. Proponents, including SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, advanced the proposal to offset federal funding reductions in healthcare, education, and food assistance programs, targeting roughly 200 state residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026. Opposition from Governor Newsom and some legislative leaders has centered on potential residency shifts and revenue effects, yet the verified signature volume and procedural timeline through June certification sustain trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability of ballot qualification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$130,590
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 25, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Recent submission of 1.55 million signatures for the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act initiative—nearly double the 875,000 required—has positioned the one-time 5 percent wealth tax measure for likely inclusion on California's November ballot. Proponents, including SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, advanced the proposal to offset federal funding reductions in healthcare, education, and food assistance programs, targeting roughly 200 state residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026. Opposition from Governor Newsom and some legislative leaders has centered on potential residency shifts and revenue effects, yet the verified signature volume and procedural timeline through June certification sustain trader consensus around an 87.5 percent implied probability of ballot qualification.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$130,590
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 25, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 88% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 88¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 88% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" telah menghasilkan $130.6K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Oct 24, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" adalah 88% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 88% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.