A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top position in this market as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term, supported by his established base within the Workers' Party and ongoing polling leads in first-round scenarios around 38-40%. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the primary right-wing contender after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement in late 2025, allowing him to consolidate much of the conservative vote despite Jair's ineligibility due to prior convictions and imprisonment. Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations, while emerging scrutiny over Flávio's links to a film funding controversy has introduced near-term volatility. Lower-priced candidates such as Renan Santos and Romeu Zema reflect vote fragmentation among smaller parties, with limited momentum to challenge the frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top position in this market as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term, supported by his established base within the Workers' Party and ongoing polling leads in first-round scenarios around 38-40%. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the primary right-wing contender after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement in late 2025, allowing him to consolidate much of the conservative vote despite Jair's ineligibility due to prior convictions and imprisonment. Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations, while emerging scrutiny over Flávio's links to a film funding controversy has introduced near-term volatility. Lower-priced candidates such as Renan Santos and Romeu Zema reflect vote fragmentation among smaller parties, with limited momentum to challenge the frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top position in this market as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term, supported by his established base within the Workers' Party and ongoing polling leads in first-round scenarios around 38-40%. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the primary right-wing contender after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement in late 2025, allowing him to consolidate much of the conservative vote despite Jair's ineligibility due to prior convictions and imprisonment. Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations, while emerging scrutiny over Flávio's links to a film funding controversy has introduced near-term volatility. Lower-priced candidates such as Renan Santos and Romeu Zema reflect vote fragmentation among smaller parties, with limited momentum to challenge the frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds the top position in this market as he seeks an unprecedented fourth term, supported by his established base within the Workers' Party and ongoing polling leads in first-round scenarios around 38-40%. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the primary right-wing contender after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement in late 2025, allowing him to consolidate much of the conservative vote despite Jair's ineligibility due to prior convictions and imprisonment. Recent polls from Quaest and Datafolha show the pair statistically tied in runoff simulations, while emerging scrutiny over Flávio's links to a film funding controversy has introduced near-term volatility. Lower-priced candidates such as Renan Santos and Romeu Zema reflect vote fragmentation among smaller parties, with limited momentum to challenge the frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
May 12 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro’s price drops 10 points after controversial interview
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 33%12%
An interview in which Flávio made inflammatory remarks led to a rapid decline from 45 % to 33 %, reflecting voter backlash.
May 7 2026
Brazil’s Supreme Court moves Bolsonaro to larger cell with outdoor area
Flávio Bolsonaro drops to 34%10%
Brazil’s Supreme Court ordered the transfer of Jair Bolsonaro to a larger prison cell with better conditions, which may affect his health and political influence. This event followed his recent medical issues and was part of ongoing legal proceedings.
May 7 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro peaks at 45 % after rally in São Paulo
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 45%7%
A large rally in São Paulo energized Flávio’s base, pushing his price to a market high before a slight correction later in May.
A slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth lowered voter confidence in Lula, driving his price to a new trough.
Apr 18 2026
Lula’s approval dips after controversial Amazon mining concessions
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops to 40%12%
Environmental controversy hurt Lula’s standing, contributing to a decline from 52 % to 40 % in his market price.
Mar 12 2026
Former President Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery in prison
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 17%5%
Jair Bolsonaro underwent double hernia surgery while serving his 27-year prison sentence, temporarily affecting his health and political activity. This event coincided with a temporary increase in attention to Bolsonaro's condition and his son Flávio's candidacy.
Feb 16 2026
Flávio Bolsonaro reaches 29 % after releasing detailed policy platform
Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 29%3%
Flávio’s rollout of a concrete economic platform reassured voters, pushing his price upward during February.
Jan 30 2026
Brazil’s finance minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for Sao Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 3%49%
Fernando Haddad resigned as Brazil’s finance minister to run for governor of Sao Paulo, reducing his chances in the presidential race and causing his market price to drop significantly from over 50% to around 3%.
Jan 8 2026
Brazil’s Lula vetoes bill that could reduce Bolsonaro’s prison time
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vetoed a bill that would have reduced the 27-year prison sentence of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his coup attempt, reinforcing Lula's stance against Bolsonaro and impacting Bolsonaro's political prospects negatively.
Dec 30 2025
Renan Santos’ poll share collapses after poor debate performance
Renan Santos plunges to 6%44%
A televised debate in late December highlighted Santos’ lack of national recognition, causing his price to tumble from 50 % to single‑digit levels.
Dec 25 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro announced as presidential candidate by his father Jair Bolsonaro
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 12%11%
Former President Jair Bolsonaro appointed his son Flávio Bolsonaro as the presidential candidate for their party, boosting Flávio's profile and causing a significant rise in his market price from near 1% to over 12%. This announcement positioned Flávio as a main challenger to Lula.
Dec 20 2025
Michelle Bolsonaro’s public support drops after husband’s surgery
Michelle Bolsonaro plunges to 1%51%
With Jair Bolsonaro’s limited visibility, Michelle Bolsonaro’s own political relevance faded sharply, reflected in a plunge of her market price to near‑zero.
Dec 20 2025
Jair Bolsonaro undergoes double hernia surgery and returns to prison
Flávio Bolsonaro surges to 27%15%
Bolsonaro’s health episode kept him out of the public eye, limiting his campaign impact and shifting attention to his son Flávio, whose price continued to rise.
Dec 6 2025
Lula’s administration replaces Haddad with Dario Durigan
Fernando Haddad dips to 2%2%
The cabinet shuffle further signaled a shift away from Haddad’s influence, reinforcing the market’s move away from his candidacy.
Dec 6 2025
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad resigns to run for São Paulo governor
Fernando Haddad plunges to 4%48%
Haddad’s resignation removed a senior Lula ally from the cabinet, diminishing his personal political brand and causing a steep decline in his own election market price.
Oct 12 2025
Flávio Bolsonaro emerges as Bolsonaro’s official presidential candidate
Flávio Bolsonaro jumps to 11%9%
Following the veto, Flávio Bolsonaro announced he would run as the official candidate of the Bolsonaro camp, giving his name a clear electoral identity and driving his market price upward.
Oct 12 2025
President Lula vetoes bill that would reduce Bolsonaro’s prison sentence
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jumps to 63%8%
Lula’s veto signaled a hard‑line stance against Bolsonaro’s legal challenges, boosting Lula’s perceived strength and raising Flávio Bolsonaro’s profile as the main challenger, while hurting Bolsonaro‑aligned candidates.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan
"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 17 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 45%, diikuti oleh "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 45¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 45% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.
Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" telah menghasilkan $78.9 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Sep 18, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.
Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," jelajahi 17 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.
Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 45%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 45% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.
Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.
Ya. Kamu tidak perlu trading untuk tetap terinformasi. Halaman ini berfungsi sebagai pelacak langsung untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil." Probabilitas hasil diperbarui secara real-time saat trade baru masuk. Kamu bisa menandai halaman ini dan memeriksa bagian komentar untuk melihat apa yang dikatakan trader lain. Kamu juga bisa menggunakan filter rentang waktu pada grafik untuk melihat bagaimana peluang bergeser seiring waktu. Ini jendela real-time gratis tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.
Peluang Polymarket ditetapkan oleh trader nyata yang menaruh uang nyata di balik keyakinan mereka, yang cenderung menghasilkan prediksi yang akurat. Dengan $78.9 million diperdagangkan pada "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," harga-harga ini mengumpulkan pengetahuan dan keyakinan kolektif dari ribuan peserta — sering kali mengalahkan jajak pendapat, prakiraan ahli, dan survei tradisional. Pasar prediksi seperti Polymarket memiliki rekam jejak akurasi yang kuat, terutama saat event mendekati tanggal resolusinya. Misalnya, Polymarket memiliki skor akurasi satu bulan sebesar 94%. Untuk statistik terbaru tentang akurasi prediksi Polymarket, kunjungi halaman akurasi di Polymarket.
Untuk melakukan trade pertamamu di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil," daftar akun Polymarket gratis dan isi dengan crypto, kartu kredit atau debit, atau transfer bank. Setelah akunmu terisi, kembali ke halaman ini, pilih hasil yang ingin kamu trading, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu baru di pasar prediksi, klik link "Cara kerjanya" di bagian atas halaman Polymarket mana pun untuk panduan langkah demi langkah tentang cara trading.
Di Polymarket, harga setiap hasil mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Harga 45¢ untuk "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" berarti trader secara kolektif percaya ada sekitar peluang 45% bahwa "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" akan menjadi hasil yang benar. Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" di 45¢ dan hasilnya benar, kamu menerima $1,00 per saham — keuntungan 55¢ per saham. Jika salah, saham tersebut bernilai $0.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" dijadwalkan diselesaikan pada atau sekitar Oct 4, 2026. Ini berarti trading akan tetap terbuka dan peluang akan terus bergeser saat informasi baru muncul sampai tanggal tersebut. Waktu resolusi tepat tergantung pada kapan hasil resmi tersedia, seperti diuraikan di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini.
Pasar "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil" memiliki komunitas aktif dengan 7,159 komentar di mana trader berbagi analisis, memperdebatkan hasil, dan membahas perkembangan terkini. Scroll ke bawah ke bagian komentar untuk membaca apa yang dipikirkan peserta lain. Kamu juga bisa memfilter berdasarkan "Top Holder" untuk melihat posisi trader terbesar pasar, atau periksa tab "Aktivitas" untuk feed real-time dari trade.
Polymarket adalah pasar prediksi terbesar di dunia, di mana kamu bisa tetap terinformasi dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari pengetahuanmu tentang event dunia nyata. Trader membeli dan menjual saham pada hasil untuk topik mulai dari politik dan pemilu hingga crypto, keuangan, olahraga, teknologi, dan budaya, termasuk pasar seperti "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil." Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time yang didukung oleh keyakinan finansial, sering kali memberikan sinyal yang lebih cepat dan lebih akurat daripada jajak pendapat, pakar, atau survei tradisional.
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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan