China maintains elevated gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through record numbers of coast guard and government vessels operating near the island, frequent joint combat readiness patrols crossing the median line, and live-fire drills in the Strait, yet these actions have remained below the threshold of direct military engagement. Taiwanese forces continue Han Kuang exercises and immediate combat readiness drills focused on rapid response to potential blockades or landings, while Beijing emphasizes unification as a long-term goal tied to 2027 PLA modernization targets without recent signals of imminent kinetic escalation. Trader consensus on no clash before 2027 aligns with this pattern of sustained coercion short of war, reinforced by ongoing diplomatic and military posturing from all sides.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
7% peluang
$3,275,918 Vol.
$3,275,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
7% peluang
$3,275,918 Vol.
$3,275,918 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains elevated gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through record numbers of coast guard and government vessels operating near the island, frequent joint combat readiness patrols crossing the median line, and live-fire drills in the Strait, yet these actions have remained below the threshold of direct military engagement. Taiwanese forces continue Han Kuang exercises and immediate combat readiness drills focused on rapid response to potential blockades or landings, while Beijing emphasizes unification as a long-term goal tied to 2027 PLA modernization targets without recent signals of imminent kinetic escalation. Trader consensus on no clash before 2027 aligns with this pattern of sustained coercion short of war, reinforced by ongoing diplomatic and military posturing from all sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,275,918Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.China maintains elevated gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through record numbers of coast guard and government vessels operating near the island, frequent joint combat readiness patrols crossing the median line, and live-fire drills in the Strait, yet these actions have remained below the threshold of direct military engagement. Taiwanese forces continue Han Kuang exercises and immediate combat readiness drills focused on rapid response to potential blockades or landings, while Beijing emphasizes unification as a long-term goal tied to 2027 PLA modernization targets without recent signals of imminent kinetic escalation. Trader consensus on no clash before 2027 aligns with this pattern of sustained coercion short of war, reinforced by ongoing diplomatic and military posturing from all sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,275,918Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China maintains elevated gray-zone pressure on Taiwan through record numbers of coast guard and government vessels operating near the island, frequent joint combat readiness patrols crossing the median line, and live-fire drills in the Strait, yet these actions have remained below the threshold of direct military engagement. Taiwanese forces continue Han Kuang exercises and immediate combat readiness drills focused on rapid response to potential blockades or landings, while Beijing emphasizes unification as a long-term goal tied to 2027 PLA modernization targets without recent signals of imminent kinetic escalation. Trader consensus on no clash before 2027 aligns with this pattern of sustained coercion short of war, reinforced by ongoing diplomatic and military posturing from all sides.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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