Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote features a fragmented three-way contest among Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, with recent polls showing no candidate approaching an outright majority. This dynamic, combined with historical first-round participation rates consistently between 54 and 57 percent of the roughly 41.5 million registered voters, anchors trader consensus around that band. Modeling from recent surveys projects 22–23 million ballots cast, reflecting steady mobilization by the Historic Pact base alongside limited enthusiasm in a polarized but non-mobilizing environment. Security conditions in rural areas and the absence of major late-campaign consolidation events have so far kept expectations stable, with any surge in urban turnout or rural abstention remaining the primary variables that could shift outcomes outside the current leading range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
BARU
BARU
May 31, 2026
<48%
4%
48-51%
20%
51-54%
23%
54-57%
48%
57-60%
13%
60%+
11%
54-57% 51%
51-54% 18%
57-60% 18.0%
48-51% 15%
BARU
BARU
May 31, 2026
<48%
$436 Vol.
4%
48-51%
$428 Vol.
20%
51-54%
$420 Vol.
23%
54-57%
$441 Vol.
48%
57-60%
$420 Vol.
13%
60%+
$489 Vol.
11%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote features a fragmented three-way contest among Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, with recent polls showing no candidate approaching an outright majority. This dynamic, combined with historical first-round participation rates consistently between 54 and 57 percent of the roughly 41.5 million registered voters, anchors trader consensus around that band. Modeling from recent surveys projects 22–23 million ballots cast, reflecting steady mobilization by the Historic Pact base alongside limited enthusiasm in a polarized but non-mobilizing environment. Security conditions in rural areas and the absence of major late-campaign consolidation events have so far kept expectations stable, with any surge in urban turnout or rural abstention remaining the primary variables that could shift outcomes outside the current leading range.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$2,634Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote features a fragmented three-way contest among Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, with recent polls showing no candidate approaching an outright majority. This dynamic, combined with historical first-round participation rates consistently between 54 and 57 percent of the roughly 41.5 million registered voters, anchors trader consensus around that band. Modeling from recent surveys projects 22–23 million ballots cast, reflecting steady mobilization by the Historic Pact base alongside limited enthusiasm in a polarized but non-mobilizing environment. Security conditions in rural areas and the absence of major late-campaign consolidation events have so far kept expectations stable, with any surge in urban turnout or rural abstention remaining the primary variables that could shift outcomes outside the current leading range.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$2,634Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia’s May 31 first-round presidential vote features a fragmented three-way contest among Iván Cepeda, Abelardo de la Espriella, and Paloma Valencia, with recent polls showing no candidate approaching an outright majority. This dynamic, combined with historical first-round participation rates consistently between 54 and 57 percent of the roughly 41.5 million registered voters, anchors trader consensus around that band. Modeling from recent surveys projects 22–23 million ballots cast, reflecting steady mobilization by the Historic Pact base alongside limited enthusiasm in a polarized but non-mobilizing environment. Security conditions in rural areas and the absence of major late-campaign consolidation events have so far kept expectations stable, with any surge in urban turnout or rural abstention remaining the primary variables that could shift outcomes outside the current leading range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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